Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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197 FXUS64 KLZK 120537 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1237 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 19z satellite and surface observations indicate scattered, mainly high clouds across the forecast area. Near normal temperatures prevailed. Regional satellite and radar data continue to indicate the progress of an MCS moving east over north Texas. CAM guidance suggests that thus system will stay to the southwest of the forecast area. A surface ridge of high pressure across the mid south will strengthen during this period. Also, a mid level ridge will build from the southwest. Together, these features are expected to impede precipitation development during this period. Heat stress conditions will rise during the period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 H500 ridging will be building east toward Arkansas from the SW US at the start of the period. Under the ridge, mostly dry conditions are expected, and hot temperatures are in the forecast through early next week. Moisture will slowly increase across the state with time. Much of the state except the Ozark/Ouachita Mountains will experience heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees on Sunday when the heat looks to peak. With daily high temperatures expected to top out in the upper 90s F each day from Fri-Sun across parts of the state, there is definitely some chance for a few locations to hit the century mark. Given the recent active pattern and widespread rainfall in many areas, it will be interesting to see how much sfc/soil conditions influence area T/Td values. Early next week, the ridge will wobble to the east. There is some indication that tropical moisture will head this way from the Gulf Coast on Monday. Temperatures will not be as hot, and there will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conds wl persist thru the PD. High lvl clouds wl gradually decrease thru the mrng hrs. Light winds early will bcm E/SE at 5 to 8 mph by midday Wed. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...44