898
FXUS64 KLZK 020531
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Latest data from KLZK radar indicate a few weak convective cells
in northeast Arkansas, moving east. Regional radar data indicate
a MCS developing to the east of the DFW metroplex, moving east.
This system is expected to develop towards the LZK forecast area.

Overnight, wIth a light and variable near surface flow and clear
conditions, fog formation is supported. Will need to monitor near
term forecasts to determine of any headlines are necessary.

Next chance for widespread precipitation appears for late in this
forecast period. Several forecast signals exist currently,
pointing towards MCS development to develop across the central
Kansas, then will approach the forecast area. Later forecasts
will be able to refine the timing of this type of system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An active weather pattern is expected through the much of the
period. Surface high pressure will be situated just to the east of
the state as southerly flow supplies moisture into the state around
the high pressure. Aloft, a quasi-zonal pattern is expected to set
up allowing several disturbances to track across the area.

As of this forecast package, severe weather is expected to remain on
the low side...but not zero. Should any severe weather materialize
with any MCS`s...damaging winds would be the main threat. QPF will
depend on where rainfall sets up and tracks. For the most part, many
areas across the state could see one to two inches through Friday
with locally higher amounts possible.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side with highs in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail initially but patchy fog is expected
to develop at some terminals overnight. MVFR conditions or briefly
lower will be possible before VFR conditions return by late morning
Sunday. Overall winds will be on the lighter side.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  87  70  87 /  10  50  40  40
Camden AR         69  89  70  90 /   0  30  20  20
Harrison AR       66  83  66  85 /  10  60  40  30
Hot Springs AR    70  88  71  87 /  10  40  30  20
Little Rock   AR  71  89  73  89 /  10  40  30  30
Monticello AR     71  89  73  90 /   0  30  20  20
Mount Ida AR      69  86  70  86 /  10  40  30  20
Mountain Home AR  66  84  67  85 /  10  60  40  40
Newport AR        70  87  71  86 /  10  50  40  40
Pine Bluff AR     70  89  73  90 /   0  30  30  20
Russellville AR   70  87  71  88 /  10  50  30  30
Searcy AR         68  88  70  88 /  10  50  40  30
Stuttgart AR      71  88  74  88 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...56