Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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591 FXUS64 KLZK 140523 AAB AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1223 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Recent observations across Arkansas indicate cloudy conditions prevailing. Widely scattered showers were located in northwest Arkansas. This precipitation activity was supported by an upper level low, centered over south central Kansas. This feature will continue to move eastward, promoting additional convection during the first half of this forecast period. Recent CAM output suggests some increase in coverage and intensity between 00-06z, before moving east of the forecast area. Scattered light showers are expected Tuesday afternoon, before the system`s influence moves east of the area. Warm and dry conditions are expected from Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 The extended term will begin with an upper level low and associated trof spinning over the swrn US / northern MX and traversing eastward. The trof will become somewhat distended as it moves toward the midsection of the country, but nevertheless should increase rain chances substantially on Friday. At the surface it appears that several fronts will be in the vicinity of the state on Friday. Of highest confidence will be the presence of a cold front sweeping across TX. The next boundary of concern will be a slow-moving warm front moving north out of the Gulf. Most likely this will be over Louisiana and will probably stay south of Arkansas. However, I will not rule out the possibility of the front making it further north over southern AR. Of lower confidence yet will the the positioning and timing of a quasi-stationary front extending from the ArkLaTex off to the northeast. Models favor this extending thru AR up to the midwest, but I am not too confident on exactly where this front will be. At first look, I would suspect severe weather will be in store for areas well south of Arkansas in the warm sector. However, in the unlikely scenario that the warm front and associated surface low end up further north, a severe weather risk could present itself across southern Arkansas. Another concern will be the potential for heavy rainfall from storms training along and in the vicinity of the frontal boundaries affecting the region. At the moment this could include southern Arkansas even if the warm front remains in LA. After the trof passes, a bit of ridging should start to occur, bringing 90-degree temperatures into play for portions of the state on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Some lingering SHRA could be seen at the SERN sections for a few more hrs...but some MVFR or lower CIGs may be seen the rest of the overnight period for some terminals. Some improvements are expected by late Tue morning. Additional convection may be seen across the NERN third of the area for Tue afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 60 82 62 82 / 10 0 10 40 Camden AR 58 87 63 82 / 0 0 0 20 Harrison AR 56 80 61 78 / 10 0 20 50 Hot Springs AR 58 87 63 83 / 0 0 0 30 Little Rock AR 63 87 65 85 / 10 0 0 20 Monticello AR 62 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 20 Mount Ida AR 57 87 64 82 / 0 0 0 30 Mountain Home AR 57 80 61 78 / 20 0 20 50 Newport AR 61 81 63 83 / 10 0 0 30 Pine Bluff AR 61 86 64 83 / 0 0 0 20 Russellville AR 57 85 63 83 / 10 0 10 30 Searcy AR 60 83 61 83 / 10 0 0 30 Stuttgart AR 62 82 64 83 / 10 0 0 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...62