432
FXUS64 KLZK 121953
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
253 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Data from LZK indicate an area of returns, mostly aloft, across
southwest sections of the state, moving northeast. Overcast
conditions were in place across the state.

Short wave energy will move from the central Rockies to the Ohio
valley during this period.  As this this occurs, the resulting mass
field adjustments across the mid south, will act on increasing
overall moisture in the atmospheric columns to produce several
rounds of precipitation. Forecast parameters support isolated severe
thunderstorm and excessive rainfall chances.  The more supportive
conditions for each will occur south of the forecast area.

The precipitation will clear from southwest to northeast towards the
end of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

To begin the period, a brief break in the unsettled weather is
expected Wednesday as a low pressure system is situated in the Ohio
Valley with an additional upper level trough located out west. This
trough will bring the next disturbance to the state Thursday before
clearing the state late Friday into early Saturday.

As of this forecast package, it is too early to determine the threat
for severe with this system late in the week. But what is
certain...an unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue from
the short term period into the long term with multiple rounds of
rain expected.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side through much of
the period...especially by Saturday. Early in the period, high
temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with
overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. By Saturday, high
temperatures are expected to increase into the mid 80s to lower 90s
across the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

IFR ceilings are expected to develop across most areas during the
second half of the forecast area. Expect for a precipitation
shield to develop and move northeast across the forecast areas.
MVFR visibility will prevail in vicinity of the precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  77  62  77 /  50  80  70  70
Camden AR         62  79  62  82 /  80  40  30  10
Harrison AR       58  75  57  72 /  60  90  50  60
Hot Springs AR    62  79  62  80 /  70  50  50  20
Little Rock   AR  64  80  65  81 /  70  50  60  40
Monticello AR     64  80  66  82 /  90  50  50  20
Mount Ida AR      60  79  60  80 /  70  70  40  30
Mountain Home AR  60  75  59  74 /  60  80  60  70
Newport AR        63  76  64  77 /  40  70  80  70
Pine Bluff AR     64  79  65  81 /  70  50  60  30
Russellville AR   61  78  60  78 /  60  70  40  40
Searcy AR         62  77  62  78 /  70  60  70  60
Stuttgart AR      65  78  65  78 /  70  50  70  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...55