027
FXUS64 KLZK 151033 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
533 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Quiet and cool conditions are ongoing across the area early this Wed
morning as the upper shortwave to the NE moves east further away
from the area. Ridging aloft will move over the state by this
afternoon...keeping most areas dry. A mostly sunny sky and relatively
dry air near the SFC should allow temps to warm into the mid 70s to
upper 80s across the area this afternoon. A small ripple in the
upper flow over NWRN sections may generate an isolated SHRA this
afternoon...but potential too low to add mentionable POPs at this
time.

The main upper ridging will shift east for tonight and for
Thu...with some increasing POPs across NWRN sections late tonight
and through the daytime hrs on Thu. Central to SERN sections should
continue with a dry forecast. This will change by Thu night however
as energy moves downstream of an upper shortwave to the
west...moving over a larger portion of AR. Chances for convection
will increase areawide Thu night...with scattered to widespread
SHRA/TSRA expected by the end of the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Rain and thunderstorms remain likely across the state at the start
of the period as an H500 trough will be moving east across the area
while a cold front sweeps through. Precip should taper off from west
to east before midnight as NW winds and slightly drier air move in
behind the front.

A mostly dry forecast remains in place for the upcoming weekend into
early next week. The heat is expected to build and will make it feel
more like Summer across the state than Spring. Anomalously high H500
heights originating from Mexico will extend northeastward toward the
Great Lakes. This will contribute to well above normal temperatures
for the upcoming weekend into early next week. Highs approaching or
exceeding 90 F appear likely during this timeframe. With the H500
ridge in place, any approaching system will generally be directed
north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Expect dominant VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period.
Some patchy fog/low CIGS will remain possible early in the period
before improving conditions later this morning for those few
terminals. Some chances for convection return late in the period
for NWRN terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  62  84  64 /   0  10  20  70
Camden AR         87  62  86  64 /   0   0  10  70
Harrison AR       80  61  81  61 /  10  20  30  70
Hot Springs AR    87  63  86  64 /   0   0  10  70
Little Rock   AR  86  65  87  67 /   0   0  10  70
Monticello AR     86  65  87  66 /   0   0   0  70
Mount Ida AR      87  63  86  63 /   0  10  10  70
Mountain Home AR  80  61  83  61 /   0  20  40  70
Newport AR        82  63  86  66 /   0  10  10  60
Pine Bluff AR     85  63  87  66 /   0   0   0  70
Russellville AR   85  63  86  64 /   0  10  10  60
Searcy AR         83  62  86  64 /   0  10  10  70
Stuttgart AR      83  65  86  67 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...62