Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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639 FXUS64 KLZK 040514 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1214 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Tricky forecast on tap in the short term with multiple storm systems set to move through the state over the next 24 hours. Currently the remnants of an early morning system is pushing east of Little Rock and continues to weaken. These storms have created quite a bit of stability to the atmosphere across the northern half of the state. A second line of storms is pushing into western Arkansas as I type, however with the more stable air in place across northern and central parts of the state from this mornings convection, the severe weather threat across that area is fairly low. However, the southern half of the state remains prime for severe weather with ample SB CAPE in place across those portions of the state. Later this evening, Hi-Res CAMS are showing yet another round of showers and thunderstorms to move into western Arkansas during the overnight/early morning hours on Tuesday. While models disagree in the strength of the system, they do agree that there will be an additional round of rain to the region. Beyond the near term, nearly zonal flow aloft will continue with continued short wave troughs...the next being early Wednesday morning as yet another storm system is forecast to move through the state. Despite this unsettled weather, temperatures will remain right around normal for this time of year. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80`s with lows ranging from the 60`s to lower 70`s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A break in precip chances will be in the forecast for the Thu-Fri period. H500 NW flow will be in place with a sfc ridge extending south into the state behind a front. Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures will be noted by Friday with temperatures on Thursday expected to be quite hot. Rain chances return to the forecast by the weekend into early next week as a new front sinks south toward the state and becomes the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms at times. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Additional round of convection continues to develop to the west and southwest of the terminals and will impact mainly central TAFS later this morning. More convection can not be ruled out again Tuesday evening but confidence is low with its initiation and placement. Otherwise VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period with some lower cigs possible around sunrise. Winds will remain generally light and from the southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 84 71 87 66 / 50 70 50 0 Camden AR 87 71 87 69 / 40 10 40 10 Harrison AR 83 68 85 63 / 40 70 20 0 Hot Springs AR 85 71 87 67 / 30 40 40 10 Little Rock AR 87 73 89 70 / 40 40 50 10 Monticello AR 89 73 87 71 / 50 10 60 20 Mount Ida AR 84 70 87 66 / 30 50 40 0 Mountain Home AR 84 68 86 63 / 40 70 30 0 Newport AR 85 72 87 66 / 60 60 50 0 Pine Bluff AR 87 72 88 69 / 50 20 50 10 Russellville AR 85 71 89 67 / 40 60 30 0 Searcy AR 85 71 87 66 / 40 60 50 0 Stuttgart AR 86 74 87 70 / 40 40 60 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...56