718
FXUS64 KLZK 031912
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
212 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Tricky forecast on tap in the short term with multiple storm systems
set to move through the state over the next 24 hours. Currently the
remnants of an early morning system is pushing east of Little Rock
and continues to weaken.  These storms have created quite a bit of
stability to the atmosphere across the northern half of the state.

A second line of storms is pushing into western Arkansas as I type,
however with the more stable air in place across northern and
central parts of the state from this mornings convection, the severe
weather threat across that area is fairly low.  However, the
southern half of the state remains prime for severe weather with
ample SB CAPE in place across those portions of the state.

Later this evening, Hi-Res CAMS are showing yet another round of
showers and thunderstorms to move into western Arkansas during the
overnight/early morning hours on Tuesday. While models disagree in
the strength of the system, they do agree that there will be an
additional round of rain to the region.

Beyond the near term, nearly zonal flow aloft will continue with
continued short wave troughs...the next being early Wednesday
morning as yet another storm system is forecast to move through the
state.

Despite this unsettled weather, temperatures will remain right
around normal for this time of year. High temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 80`s with lows ranging from the 60`s to lower 70`s.


&&



.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A break in precip chances will be in the forecast for the Thu-Fri
period. H500 NW flow will be in place with a sfc ridge extending
south into the state behind a front. Drier air and slightly cooler
temperatures will be noted by Friday with temperatures on Thursday
expected to be quite hot.

Rain chances return to the forecast by the weekend into early next
week as a new front sinks south toward the state and becomes the
focus for additional showers and thunderstorms at times.


&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     68  85  72  87 /  80  40  60  50
Camden AR         70  88  71  87 /  60  20  20  40
Harrison AR       66  83  67  85 /  70  30  80  30
Hot Springs AR    69  86  70  87 /  80  20  40  40
Little Rock   AR  71  88  73  89 /  60  30  40  50
Monticello AR     72  89  73  87 /  40  30  10  60
Mount Ida AR      68  85  70  87 /  80  20  50  40
Mountain Home AR  66  84  69  86 /  70  40  70  30
Newport AR        69  85  72  87 /  30  50  60  50
Pine Bluff AR     71  88  72  88 /  40  30  20  50
Russellville AR   69  86  72  89 /  80  30  60  30
Searcy AR         68  86  71  87 /  50  40  50  50
Stuttgart AR      72  86  73  87 /  60  30  40  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...99