106
FXUS64 KLZK 062319
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
619 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Mostly dry condition were ongoing across most of the area this Thu
afternoon. Temps were in the 80s to low 90s so far...with highs
expected a few more deg warmer by the peak heating of the afternoon.
A new front was dropping south into the state early this
afternoon...with scattered convection ongoing across SWRN into SRN
MO...moving into NRN AR. Keep POPs mentioned this afternoon for NRN
AR as a result of this scattered/isolated convection as it will
remain possible during the daylight hrs. Once the sun sets...expect
most if not all precip to dissipate with the loss of heating.

The aforementioned front will continue dropping south this afternoon
and through tonight...with SFC high pressure settling across the
region by Fri morning. Drier air will settle across AR as a
result...with some comfortably cool/dry conditions expected to start
off Fri. Lows will drop into the 50s and 60s for most areas...though
some lingering low 70s may remain across the SE. Highs on Fri will
be cooler than expected today...with highs in the 80s to near 90.
The dry air will keep heat index values near or maybe even below
observed temps. The drier wx will continue into Fri night...with
another cool comfortable night expected.

SRLY flow will return for Sat...with moisture levels rebounding as a
result. Flow aloft will be mainly zonal to NW by Sat
afternoon...with a new front approaching from the north. An upper
wave will move over NRN sections of the CWA by late Sat
afternoon...with some increased POPs for convection forecast as a
result. Central to SRN sections should remain generally dry. This
will change beyond Fri afternoon in the early part of the long term
period as the new front drops south into the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The extended term will begin with a cold front pushing its way into
Arkansas from N-S. There will be a fairly good temperature gradient
along the front, along with rainfall moving in along and behind it.
Exactly how fast the front will traverse the state is still a bit
uncertain in my mind. Most models bring the front into central AR
around mid-afternoon. Temperatures behind the front, in rain-cooled
air, will only top out in the 70`s. South of the front, readings
above 90 will be the rule after midday.

The front should take its time getting thru the state with a nearly
parallel flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are going to linger
across the state, and will likely clear out of the south on Monday
afternoon. A shortwave approaching from the west will bring
additional showers and thunderstorms to the state late Monday into
Tuesday.

With some fair amounts of instability present south of the
front on Sunday, I would not rule out an isolated severe storm or
two...but a lack of wind shear affecting storm cell longevity should
not allow anything too significant to develop.

I am a little concerned about the potential for excessive rainfall,
particularly across the north. However, that will ultimately depend
on the speed of the front and any training storm cells.

Ridging will start to take place over the area by Thursday, and
temperatures should start climbing back up to the 90 degree mark in
many areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conds will prevail through the period. A frontal boundary
will continue working Swrd through the state tonight, switching
winds to a more Nrly direction. On Fri, winds will gradually
switch back to a E/SE although remain light, less than 10 kts
expected. SKC will prevail at most terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  87  66  86 /  10   0   0  10
Camden AR         67  91  66  94 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       60  86  65  86 /  10   0  10  30
Hot Springs AR    67  89  66  93 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  68  89  68  92 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     70  89  66  93 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      66  89  66  92 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  59  87  65  85 /  20   0  10  30
Newport AR        63  87  66  87 /  10   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     68  89  67  93 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   66  89  66  92 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         64  88  64  89 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      68  88  67  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...70