914
FXUS64 KMAF 280530
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

This evening, the Heat Advisory that was in effect for most
locations along and south of I-10 has been allowed to expire.
However, another hot day is ahead tomorrow, and given forecast
high temperatures of 95 to 98 degrees in the Davis and Chinati
Mountains, and up to around 110 degrees along the Rio Grande in
the Big Bend, another Heat Advisory has been issued. Tuesday`s
Advisory includes the Davis Mountains and Foothills as well as
Brewster County, and while temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler than today, these temperatures will still be dangerous,
especially given the effects of extreme heat are cumulative. Those
with outdoor plans or who work outdoors will need to plan
accordingly.

The forecast remains on track tonight and tomorrow, with focus
continuing to be on severe thunderstorm potential beginning mid to
late afternoon Tuesday, continuing into the early evening. There
is currently a low (10-40%) probability of severe thunderstorms,
with particular focus across the central and eastern Permian Basin
and Stockton Plateau Tuesday afternoon, with very large hail and
damaging winds the main concerns. Latest CAMs indicate that storms
will move eastward, with most convective activity east of the area
by mid evening, and fairly quiescent conditions thereafter. Stay
tuned, as details may change over the next 12 to 18 hours.

JP

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Weak ridging moves in tonight with a shortwave trough undercutting
it. Return flow tonight will bring low level moisture in across the
eastern half of the CWA. A dryline sharpens just to the west of
Midland/Odessa Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings show ample
instability, plenty of shear, and steep lapse rates that would allow
any storms that do develop to become severe. Hail and damaging winds
will be the main threats along with heavy rain and lightning. Hi-
resolution guidance continue to suggest most of the activity
initiating over Pecos County tomorrow afternoon with other activity
developing across the eastern Permian Basin. Plenty of heat will be
available with temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to low 100s.
Storms will generally move from west to east over the course of the
afternoon and into the evening. Make sure to have multiple ways to
receive warnings!

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The extended forecast looks busy with convective chances nearly
every day into this weekend. There is a lot of uncertainty in this
forecast as the location and timing of daily storms will likely be
predicated on what occurs the previous day. This is mainly due to
outflow boundaries from overnight convection that may form to our
north. Models indicate this could occur each night through Friday.
You`ll want to check in several times this week as the forecast
could change significantly from day to day.

On Wednesday most storm chances will push of the Permian Basin due
to the arrival of a cold front/outflow from storms Tuesday night.
Will adjust NBM PoPs down and refocus the higher chances for storms
along and south of the Pecos River. Beyond midweek, mid level flow
remains weak with periodic disturbances providing multiple
opportunities for storms. Temperatures each day will depend on where
fronts and outflows settle, but overall we will remain pretty close
to normal. Very hot temperatures could return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. A
retreating dryline is bringing in a south-southeasterly wind shift
through the early overnight hours, with winds remaining somewhat
elevated at FST. By Tuesday afternoon, winds will become stronger and
gusty out of the southwest at CNM/HOB/INK/PEQ, with southerly to
southeasterly winds persisting at FST/MAF. Thunderstorms are
possible late in the period, mainly impacting FST/MAF, though low
confidence in timing and location precludes an mention in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Extremely low humidity (near 4-5%) persists this afternoon after yet
another morning of poor moisture recovery for much of the region.
However, winds are much lighter and will only regularly exceed 20
mph in and around the Guadalupe Mountains. Near-critical to
critical RFTIs are likely for a few hours here this afternoon,
but with relatively low fuel density and limited opportunities for
fire starts, have declined any fire weather headlines. Fire
weather concerns become more limited through the weekend with
good recovery each night and relatively light winds along with a
chance of storms. Very dry conditions will continue west of the
dryline across the far western zones. This will be a concern given
a threat for fire ignitions from lightning activity where
extremely dry fuels exist. This could produce a large wildfire
with high resistance to control if it were to occur in complex
terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  65  84  67 /  40  30  30  20
Carlsbad                102  64  93  65 /  10  10  20  10
Dryden                   98  71  96  72 /  50  30  30  20
Fort Stockton           102  68  96  70 /  50  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           92  63  87  64 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                    99  61  86  64 /  20  20  30  10
Marfa                    98  57  94  57 /  30  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     99  65  87  68 /  40  20  30  10
Odessa                  100  67  88  70 /  40  20  30  10
Wink                    104  67  92  70 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-
     Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...16