019
ACUS11 KWNS 011837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011836
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-012030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Areas affected...northeast New Mexico...eastern Colorado...western
Kansas...and the western OK Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 011836Z - 012030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is
increasing across northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado.

DISCUSSION...Convection has started to form along the Front Range
from central Colorado to northern New Mexico. Currently, the
environment east of the mountains remains capped amid a well-mixed
atmosphere. Another hour or two of heating should erode inhibition
across this region and permit strong to severe storm development
east of the mountains. Effective shear remains sufficiently strong
(35-40 knots per SPC mesoanalysis) to support rotating updrafts
across central Colorado with decreasing shear farther south.
Initially, the threat will be large hail (some 2+ inch where
supercell mode is favored), but severe wind will also be a threat
given the inverted-v soundings, favorable for strong downdrafts.
Eventually, expect storms to congeal into a few clusters by this
evening with an increasing severe wind threat. A severe thunderstorm
watch will be needed by mid-afternoon to address the threat from
these storms.

..Bentley/Smith.. 06/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35810574 36430526 37160491 37660480 38400490 38980501
            39340417 39390283 39440196 38840160 37060168 36560189
            36370224 35510387 35430513 35510552 35810574