Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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098
ACUS11 KWNS 010225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010224
KSZ000-COZ000-010400-
Mesoscale Discussion 1101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0924 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Areas affected...east-central and parts of southeastern Colorado
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...
Valid 010224Z - 010400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
continues.
SUMMARY...The ongoing cluster of severe storms will likely remain
capable of damaging hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe
wind gusts into this evening.
DISCUSSION...As of 0215 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a loose
cluster of strong to severe storms ongoing across east-central CO.
Over the last 2 hours, several reports of severe hail have occurred
with these storms. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear remain
in place ahead of the cluster suggesting a continued risk for strong
updrafts capable of severe hail, some of which could be greater than
2 inches. Recent radar trends and surface observations also suggest
stronger cold pool development is underway, which may eventually
support the development of a small MCS. Along with the risk for
hail, damaging wind potential may increase as storms begin to
propagate east/southeast over the next few hours. However, with the
onset of nocturnal cooling and air mass overturning from previous
convection, it remains unclear how far south and east the severe
threat will persist.
..Lyons.. 06/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37720206 37630219 37610244 37700347 37830380 38000412
38220440 38470449 38990446 39280428 39340370 39330274
39070205 37960203 37720206