413
ACUS11 KWNS 011550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011550
LAZ000-TXZ000-011745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Areas affected...Middle/upper TX coast vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011550Z - 011745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe threat could continue and possibly increase in
coverage this afternoon, with a threat of damaging wind, hail, and
possibly a tornado.

DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm cluster that earlier evolved near
Port O`Connor is moving offshore late this morning. Some convection
is spreading northeastward out of this cluster (possibly aided by
outflow), while a couple of small supercells are ongoing near the
coast across Matagorda/Brazoria Counties. Some deepening cumulus is
also noted closer to Galveston Bay, within an increasingly uncapped
environment.

Storm evolution into the afternoon remains uncertain across the
area, but based on current trends, some increase in storm coverage
and intensity appears plausible with time and northeastward extent
toward the upper TX coast. Some redevelopment will also be possible
farther south, along the trailing outflow from the ongoing storm
cluster.

Very rich low-level moisture, strong to locally extreme buoyancy,
and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support potential
for organized convection, including a couple supercells and/or
stronger clusters with an attendant risk of isolated damaging wind,
hail, and possibly a tornado (though low-level flow/shear is
expected to remain rather weak). Watch issuance is possible if
larger corridor of severe potential becomes evident.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/01/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28559544 27669683 27599792 28029795 29539679 30319478
            30469382 29629379 29409431 29089469 28999488 28559544