Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 311924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311923
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-312130-
Mesoscale Discussion 1094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Areas affected...Northeast LA into central/southern MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 311923Z - 312130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe-thunderstorm threat could evolve this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Several small, weakly rotating cells have developed
this afternoon across east-central MS, within a weakly capped and
moderately buoyant (MLCAPE of near or above 1000 J/kg) environment.
While deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, vertical shear is
somewhat enhanced by backed low-level flow near a retreating diffuse
baroclinic zone, and a transient supercell or two cannot be ruled
out, with a threat of locally damaging wind and possibly a brief
tornado.
Farther southwest, deep-layer shear is somewhat weaker south of the
warm front, but MLCAPE increasing above 1500 J/kg and increasingly
warm/moist surface conditions could support locally damaging winds
as convection spreads northeastward out of Louisiana through the
afternoon.
..Dean/Smith.. 05/31/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 33218859 32948836 32438833 31918838 31538864 31388872
31118968 31339105 31979123 32769120 33269028 33348962
33318922 33218859