982
ACUS11 KWNS 072331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072330
KSZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Areas affected...Northwest KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...397...

Valid 072330Z - 080100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396, 397
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a
tornado will spread eastward this evening.

DISCUSSION...A longer-lived supercell that earlier developed across
southwest NE is currently moving into northwest KS, with additional
development noted to its south along a surface confluence zone.
Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) and favorable
deep-layer shear (with effective shear of around 50 kt) will
continue to support supercell potential into the early evening as
convection spreads eastward.

Large hail (possibly golfball to baseball size) may remain the most
prominent severe hazard in the short term, given the supercell mode
and favorable midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy, though isolated
severe gusts will also be possible. In addition, some increase in
low-level flow has been noted in the KUEX and KDDC VWP, with backed
surface winds and some increase in low-level moisture noted
downstream of the ongoing supercells. This could support a brief
tornado threat as well.

With the ongoing increase in storm coverage and some continued
strengthening of the low-level jet expected this evening, some
upscale growth of this storm cluster will be possible with time,
which would potentially be accompanied by an increasing severe-wind
threat.

..Dean.. 06/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39930065 39949970 39559902 39189904 38819969 38910107
            39130135 39450099 39590091 39930065