Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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795
ACUS11 KWNS 261837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261836
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-262100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024
Areas affected...far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261836Z - 262100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storm producing very large hail and a few tornadoes may
develop in the next 2 hours into southwest Missouri and vicinity.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low close to the KS/OK/MO
tri-state area, where cumulus fields continue to deepen. This region
is just ahead of a developing cold front with a deep layer of
moisture convergence, and just north of a steep low-level lapse rate
plume over eastern OK.
Given the steep lapse rates aloft and continued heating near the
surface low and front, storms may form within 1-2 hours here. Both
instability and wind profiles favor supercells producing very large
hail, and, a tornado risk will likely increase as storms proceed
east into a more favorable low-level shear environment.
..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 36569329 36489445 36659525 36939540 37299531 37609514
37859493 38159446 38409307 38249250 37889215 37489210
36969241 36799274 36569329