673
ACUS11 KWNS 260029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260028
KSZ000-NEZ000-260230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...Northern Kansas into far southern Nebraska

Concerning...Tornado Watch 308...309...

Valid 260028Z - 260230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 308, 309 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern portions of WW
309, specifically across parts of north-central Kansas into far
south-central Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a pair of supercells meandering
across north-central KS have produced hail up to 1.5 inches per
recent storm reports. 00 UTC surface observations show that moisture
continues to stream north/northwest with dewpoints in the low 60s
reaching the KS/NE border. Consequently, buoyancy continues to
increase downstream of the ongoing storms and is expected to improve
further heading into the mid/late evening hours as the surface low
shifts east/northeast. Recent water-vapor imagery suggests lift
associated with the primary synoptic wave is currently overspreading
the Plains, and additional bubbling cumulus noted in GOES 1-minute
imagery to the west of the ongoing supercells. These trends suggest
that re-organization/intensification of ongoing convection, as well
as new convective development, remains possible in the coming hours.
VWPs across KS and OK are beginning to show signs of the onset of
the nocturnal low-level jet, which should further increase low-level
helicity heading into the late evening. Consequently, the potential
for all severe hazards should continue across WW 309, but should be
focused in the short-term (next couple of hours) across
north-central KS with the ongoing convection.

..Moore.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38849660 38649679 38489932 38469977 38769992 39149989
            39519963 39769937 40139724 40069700 39909681 39519661
            39139657 38849660