682
ACUS11 KWNS 071922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071922
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-072145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northern NV/UT into southern ID

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071922Z - 072145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur this
afternoon with high-based thunderstorms. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across
parts of northeast NV into western UT, as a shortwave trough
continues to move eastward across CA/NV. Robust daytime heating has
allowed surface temperatures to generally increase into the 80s.
Amid steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, a well-mixed boundary
layer should encourage some enhancement to convective downdraft
winds as DCAPE increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Isolated
strong to severe wind gusts around 50-70 mph may occur with any of
the more robust cores that can develop and be sustained this
afternoon and early evening. Occasional marginally severe hail also
appears possible, with around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear
supporting modest updraft organization. Limited instability and
low-level moisture, with MLCAPE generally forecast to remain less
than 1000 J/kg, should tend to temper the overall severe threat.
Accordingly, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/07/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   39561686 40361663 41621594 42121514 42491426 42531313
            42201182 41871122 41241117 40501113 39961188 39311299
            38741560 38941661 39561686