095
FXUS64 KMEG 031740
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1240 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

NQA indicated radar imagery denotes a few light showers moving
over northeast central Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, and
northwest Mississippi. These showers are forming along a shortwave
currently moving over northwest Mississippi. Current temperatures
are in the upper 70s to low 80s with a stratocumulus shield
moving northeast over the Mid-South. Today`s highs will will be in
the mid to upper 80s with a few areas over northern Mississippi
possibly reaching into the 90s.

As we move into the afternoon, sporadic showers and thunderstorms
will continue to form along a few shortwaves, with a few pops of
convection capable of producing damaging winds over northern
Mississippi. As we move into the early evening hours, a few
clusters of convection look to possibly bow out over northeast
Arkansas and the Mississippi Delta leading to a more probable
chance for damaging winds and a possible spin up tornado over
these areas. Today looks to be a more high CAPE, low shear type of
day as SB CAPE values are 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-6 Bulk shear
values are 25-30 kts. Dewpoints will also be in the low to mid
70s with efficient PWATS up to 2" which is around the 90th
percentile. Efficient rainfall producers will continue into
tomorrow as an upper trough moves over the Missouri and Arkansas
boarder giving continued lift to showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday morning.

PoPs were increased over areas along and west of the Mississippi
River as well as over northern Mississippi in agreement with
latest CAMs. Otherwise, the current forecast package is on track.

AEH

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Thunderstorm chances will return to the Midsouth today, and
persist through midweek. The first in a series of upper level
disturbances will move into the Midsouth late this afternoon into
early evening, bringing thunderstorms and a risk of damaging
winds to eastern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi and southwest
Tennessee. Before these storms enter the Midsouth, isolated
thunderstorms will likely form this afternoon.

Rain chances will peak on Wednesday, ahead of a weak cold front
that will pass through on Thursday. This front will bring slightly
cooler and less humid conditions for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist through midweek, with weak
zonal flow over moderate daytime instability. CAMs and medium
range models depict shortwave troughs lifting from the Ozarks into
the Midsouth this afternoon and again Tuesday morning. Both of
these features will likely be aided by one or more MCVs,
originating from convection over the southern plains.

A Slight Risk for severe storms is in effect for the western
third of the Midsouth today, with damaging winds the primary
threat. The 06Z HRRR depicts recently formed storms over southwest
KS moving ESE across OK and AR through late afternoon. Severe
threat for the Midsouth will depend on arrival timing of these
storm clusters, as surface-based CAPE will wane and CINH will
increase after 6 PM. The HRRR hints at cold pool establishment
over AR during the afternoon, which may speed arrival time and
enhance the damaging wind threat. Prior to such an MCS arriving,
CINH will erode with surface heating. HREF Grand Ensemble depicts
surface- based CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg this afternoon,
accompanied by 20-25 KT of deep layer bulk sheer. HRRR hints at
storms over OK early this morning contributing to an MCV that may
aid storm organization over the Midsouth this afternoon, despite
the otherwise weak shear.

Weak zonal flow will continue on Tuesday, with embedded convectively-
reinforced shortwaves. Model timing differences begin to emerge
further out in time, but consensus appear to favor storms earlier
in the day Tuesday. Storms coverage will impact CAPE, but HREF
depicts surface-based CAPE nearing 1500 J/kg south of I-40 by noon
Tuesday.

Upper level flow over the Midsouth will begin transitioning to
the northwest on Wednesday, behind an open trough lifting through
the Ohio River Valley. An attendant weak surface pressure trof may
provide a focus for storms over the Midsouth on Wednesday.

A slightly stronger cold front will pass through Thursday, aided
by stronger midlevel northwest flow. Slightly cooler temperatures
will follow for Friday and Saturday, along with dewpoints cooling
to the 60s. The deterministic ECMWF has come back in-line with the
medium range model consensus in maintaining a ridge in the west /
trough in the east pattern over the CONUS through the weekend.
This would keep slightly below temperatures over the Midsouth. At
this time, it`s unclear if the orientation of the upper flow will
place us downstream of convection over the central and southern
plains this weekend. NBM slight chance PoPs for the weekend appear
in order at this time.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have developed near MEM associated with
the remnants of last night`s convective activity. Best potential
for TS at TAF sites should be this afternoon through early
evening. Confidence is lower thereafter with the potential for
additional activity during the evening. Additional SHRA/TS
anticipated Tuesday afternoon during peak heating. MVFR ceilings
may develop by Tuesday morning with improvement to VFR possible
towards Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CJC