229
FXUS64 KMEG 301138 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
638 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Dry and cooler conditions are expected today with temperatures in
the low to mid 80s. Unsettled weather conditions will return to
the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon with a chance of a strong to
severe thunderstorms through at least Saturday. A period of
unsettled weather looks to remain in the forecast through the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

In the mid to upper levels, the Mid-South remains in a
northwesterly flow pattern with a large scale troughing occurring
over the eastern US and ridging taking place over the central US.
This pattern looks to persist until later today when the mid-
level ridging begins to shift eastward. Thereafter, the flow
pattern becomes quasi-zonal with a shortwave trough that ejects
out of the Plains and toward the Mid-South. Ahead of this feature,
at least weak cyclogenesis appears likely to occur, which results
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across the region
between tomorrow and Saturday. It is also possible that isolated
severe thunderstorm activity could occur tomorrow and Saturday, as
the Storm Prediction Center has included portions of the Mid-
South in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. For now the
main threats with this activity appear to be damaging winds, and
perhaps isolated instances of large hail in more organized cells.

Unsettled weather looks to hang around in the extended period
through at least the middle of next week, as multiple
disturbances appear to move through a mostly quasi-zonal flow
regime. For now, there does not appear to be a consensus with
respect to severe potential from global ensembles and
deterministic models and machine learning guidance in the
extended period, but this will be monitored closely and updates
will be provided as things evolve. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR will continue at Midsouth TAF sites through the next 24 to 30
hours, as easterly surface winds prevail.

A warm front will lift north through region Friday afternoon and
evening, coinciding with returning SHRA/TSRA chances.

JBR TAF remains AMD NOT SKED due to multiple sensor outages at the
ASOS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...PWB