729
FXUS64 KMEG 290429
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1129 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

High pressure prevails across the Mid-South with light winds and
clear skies. Some patchy fog is possible overnight otherwise no
major weather problems are expected overnight. Lows will drop into
the upper 50s in the typical cooler spots with 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A few showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday and
Thursday, mainly in north Mississippi and east-central Arkansas.
Much more widespread storms return over the weekend. Cooler
temperatures are expected Wednesday featuring highs in the middle
70s to around 80 degrees. Temperatures will rebound Friday with
low to middle 80s expected over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

High clouds continue to stream across the Midsouth downstream
from a complex of severe thunderstorms over Oklahoma and another
complex now approaching the east Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast.
Clouds will likely limit our afternoon highs, especially in east
Arkansas and northwest Mississippi.

A ridge will shift out of the Rockies into the Western Plains
tonight setting up weak northwest flow over the upper and middle
Mississippi River Valley. The ridge will become centered over the
Mississippi River by Friday. However, a series of southern stream
disturbances will try to undercut the ridge Wednesday and
Thursday resulting in the return of showers and thunderstorms to
southern and western portions of the Midsouth. Cooler air will
arrive in the Midsouth tomorrow behind a weak cold front that
passed through the region last night. A back door cold front is
expected to move across the Midsouth Wednesday night resulting
even cooler conditions Thursday. High temperatures will likely
remain in the 70s across most of the area on Thursday.

As the aforementioned ridge continues to shift east, the track of
multiple southern stream disturbances will shift a bit farther
north and east each day Friday through the weekend. As a result,
expect widespread showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.
Temperatures should trend a bit warmer Friday through Monday, but
as of now, we are expecting to remain well below 90 degrees. No
severe thunderstorms are expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions will remain through the TAF period as high
pressure continues to dominate. Fog is possible at MKL/TUP later
later this morning under clear skies, though confidence was not
high enough to include in TAF. A quasi-stationary front will move
south, over the Mid- South, tomorrow afternoon as light winds
slowly shift east/northeast. VCSH is expected to move over both
MEM and TUP tomorrow evening along a weak shortwave.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH