912
FXUS64 KMEG 301730
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1230 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A beautiful late spring day is underway across the Mid-South.
Temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low
to mid 50s areawide. Below normal humidity will remain in place
today as dry easterly flow continues across the region. Moisture
return will set up across the region tomorrow morning as winds
shift back around to the south and a complex of showers and
thunderstorms approach from the southwest.

Forecast is on track with no big changes needed at this time.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Dry and cooler conditions are expected today with temperatures in
the low to mid 80s. Unsettled weather conditions will return to
the Mid-South tomorrow afternoon with a chance of a strong to
severe thunderstorms through at least Saturday. A period of
unsettled weather looks to remain in the forecast through the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

In the mid to upper levels, the Mid-South remains in a
northwesterly flow pattern with a large scale troughing occurring
over the eastern US and ridging taking place over the central US.
This pattern looks to persist until later today when the mid-
level ridging begins to shift eastward. Thereafter, the flow
pattern becomes quasi-zonal with a shortwave trough that ejects
out of the Plains and toward the Mid-South. Ahead of this feature,
at least weak cyclogenesis appears likely to occur, which results
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances across the region
between tomorrow and Saturday. It is also possible that isolated
severe thunderstorm activity could occur tomorrow and Saturday, as
the Storm Prediction Center has included portions of the Mid-
South in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. For now the
main threats with this activity appear to be damaging winds, and
perhaps isolated instances of large hail in more organized cells.

Unsettled weather looks to hang around in the extended period
through at least the middle of next week, as multiple
disturbances appear to move through a mostly quasi-zonal flow
regime. For now, there does not appear to be a consensus with
respect to severe potential from global ensembles and
deterministic models and machine learning guidance in the
extended period, but this will be monitored closely and updates
will be provided as things evolve. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period,
although mid to high level ceilings will likely stick around
through tomorrow afternoon. A surge of precip is expected to move
up through the MS Delta starting tomorrow morning shortly after
sunrise, reaching MEM by 13Z. It is unclear how widespread the
rain shield will actually be with the initial onset, but kept
prevailing SHRA for now after looking at several point soundings
and finding very little instability until at least 21Z. Coverage
of precip looks to become more sporadic in the afternoon but picks
back up at the very end of this TAF period after 00Z Saturday.
East/southeasterly winds 8-10 kts look fairly persistent.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...CAD