236
FXUS64 KMEG 021501
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1001 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Warm and humid conditions will continue today with current
temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Today we will warm into
the upper 80s with a few areas over northern Mississippi possibly
reaching into the lower 90s. Surface high pressure will mainly
dominate the Mid-South leading to mostly dry conditions today. A
few pop up thunderstorms could possibly form along a shortwave in
Nothern Mississippi through this evening. As winds go mostly calm
and skies clear across the area overnight, fog may form along the
Tennessee River and low lying areas.

Current forecast package is on track.

AEH

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Warm and humid conditions will prevail through midweek. Thunderstorm
chances will gradually increase Monday through Wednesday, as a
series of upper level disturbances lift from the southern plains
through the Midsouth and lower Ohio River Valley. Isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible along and west of the Mississippi
River late Monday into early Tuesday morning. Damaging winds will
be the primary severe weather threat.

A weak cold front will pass through the Midsouth on Thursday.
This front will bring slightly cooler temperatures and moderating
humidity on Friday and the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A short wavelength upper level ridge will bring above normal
temperatures to the Midsouth today, and continue the day to day
reduction in thunderstorm chances. This ridge will be slower to
lift out than previously expected, persisting most of the day
Monday. With 850mb temperatures 1-3 C warmer than today, some
parts of the Midsouth will reach 90 degrees Monday afternoon.

Rain chances will edge up Monday night into Tuesday, with the
approach of a broad upper level trough. This feature may be
accompanied by convectively-enhanced vort maxima by the time it
reaches the MS River late Monday night. NAM depicts ample PWAT
and theta-e ridging in place over AR and most of the Midsouth, in
support of locally heavy rainfall. Timing and coverage will be
influenced by MCVs as well as differential heating later in the
day Tuesday.

Additional height falls will arrive Wednesday, around the southern
periphery of a deep upper low developing over the northern Great
Lakes. To what extent these height falls affect the Midsouth
depends on the model. The latest deterministic ECMWF depicts the
Great Lakes low to be weaker relative to earlier runs. Ensemble
means from the ECMWF and GFS are in closer agreement than the
respective deterministic solutions. But there is enough shift in
the ECMWF guidance to influence the NBM toward warmer temperatures,
particularly on Thursday. In any case, 60s dewpoints still appear
on track for Friday, providing a brief break from our typical early
summer humidity.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Sporadic lightning flashes may occur over the next hour or so, as
a persistent band of convection remains in the vicinity of MEM.
Elsewhere, a lower stratus layer has been observed at TUP, with
dense fog being reported at MKL. These conditions are expected to
gradually improve throughout the morning. Guidance has hinted at
convective activity later this afternoon, with another round of
lower VIS and CIGS potentially impacting TUP and MKL later
tonight. However, confidence in both of these situations remains
low at this time.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JPR