621
FXUS64 KMEG 071903
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
203 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

High pressure is currently moving over the mid-south this Fri
afternoon...with a clear sky and warm/dry conditions noted. Temps
across the area have warmed into the 80s for most areas...with
dewpts in the upper 40s to low 50s. This high pressure will slide
east tonight into Sat...with SRLY flow returning for much of Sat
into Sun.

The SRLY flow will bring increasing moisture back to the area for
Sat and especially for Sat night. An upper disturbance will drop
ESE over SRN MO into ERN TN/KY Sat morning...with some increased
chances for convection Sat morning along the MO/AR border. This
activity looks to dissipate by late in the morning and into the
afternoon hrs before making much EWD progress. However...there may
be some more SWD extent to precip if the outflow from morning
convection is strong enough to trigger more convection further SE.
Even so...POPs look to remain on the low side on the SRN/SERN
sections of the area into Sat afternoon.

A new front will drop south across MO Sat night before
slowing over NERN AR Sun morning. Have increasing POPs for most of
the area starting north to south Sat night into Sun as a
result...eventually dropping south across SRN sections through Sun
night into Mon as the front pushes through the area.

A few strong to briefly SVR storms could be seen Sat into Sat
night...but the overall threat for seeing organized SVR Wx is
somewhat low at this time. Even so...given the late spring/early
summer time frame...cannot rule out a few brief SVR
storms...with damaging winds the primary threat with the
strongest storms. Locally heavy rainfall could also be seen Sat
through Mon.

By Tue...flow aloft will be NW over the region with an upper
trough over the ERN CONUS...resulting in mainly dry conditions
into the middle of the upcoming week. However...a weak upper
shortwave may approach the region from the NW mid-week...with some
POPs returning to the forecast. This upper shortwave looks to
drop south towards the Gulf Coast late in the forecast...with
drier weather returning to wrap up the forecast by the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Expect VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period. Winds
will increase from the south/SW through the period...with dry
conditions continuing. Some chances for convection return to the
forecast near the MO/AR border...but should remain north of
terminals.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LZK62
AVIATION...PWB/LZK62