499
FXUS64 KMEG 091145
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
645 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South into
tonight as a cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi
Valley. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
the entire Mid-South with the greatest potential along and south
of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall
are the severe weather threats. A ridge of high pressure will
build in behind the front bringing cooler and drier air for the
start of the week. The ridge will build across the region with
hot temperatures in the lower to middle 90s expected by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An active early morning across portions of the Central Plains,
Middle/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys as one MCS has
departed the Mid-South and another one over eastern Kansas has
expanded into southern Missouri. Consequently, regional WSR-88D
radar trends show numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
upstream over Missouri with convective activity in a relative
minimum at the moment across the Mid-South. Early morning surface
analysis places a cold front from Pennsylvania back through
southern Missouri and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Temperatures
remain quite mild in the 70s with surface dewpoints ranging from
the middle 60s to lower 70s.

Short-term CAMs continue to struggle with the convective
initiation as overnight convection hasn`t been resolved well at
all with the relatively weak upper-level flow. Nonetheless,
short-term models including the HREF indicate additional showers
and thunderstorms should develop across the region into tonight
along and ahead of the cold front.

Confidence remains low with strong to severe thunderstorm
potential this morning as overnight convection has stabilized the
atmosphere somewhat especially north of I-40. Instability is
expected to increase throughout the day, especially along and
south of I-40 where moderate to strong instability will develop as
temperatures rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon.
These warm temperatures combined with moderately steep mid-level
lapse rates, and 30-40 kts of bulk shear may result in the
intensification of showers and thunderstorms that develop especially
during peak heating. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible with damaging winds, perhaps some large hail as the main
severe weather threats. Ample low level moisture with NAEFS still
indicating precipitable water values around 2 inches (99th
percentile) suggests the potential for localized heavy rainfall
where training of thunderstorms do occur.

Cooler and drier air will filter into the Mid-South by Monday with
highs only reaching the lower to middle 80s as an upper-level
trough will persist over the Eastern U.S. Long range operational
and ensemble model solutions indicate a potential for hot and
humid weather to return towards late this week as an upper-level
ridge over the Southern Plains builds into the Lower Mississippi
Valley.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A cold front will sag south across the Mid-South today, shifting
winds from the north in its wake. A few showers and thunderstorms
are expected in the vicinity of this front during the morning
hours but a general lull in precipitation is anticipated late
morning through mid-afternoon. Diurnal storms will develop by peak
heating, moving southeast across the CWA during the late
afternoon and evening period. The greatest risk for thunder on
station will be at MEM/TUP. This activity will generally end by
05z, though some straggling showers may linger into the early
morning hours.

Low clouds are expected along/north of the front today. Prevailing
MVFR conditions are expected at JBR/MKL today with tempo MVFR
conditions at MEM/TUP. Low clouds will persist into the early
morning hours, gradually clearing from north to south.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...MJ