Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
219 FXUS64 KMEG 032316 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 616 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Warm and humid conditions will continue through mid-week. Several upper level disturbances will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Wednesday. There exists a potential for strong to severe thunderstorm development now through Tuesday evening with primary threats of damaging winds and heavy rainfall. A cold front will move through Thursday decreasing our rain chances and cooling temperatures slightly. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The Mid-South will remain under quasi-zonal flow through Wednesday as an unsettled weather pattern continues over the area. Upper level water vapor imagery currently denotes two shortwaves: one over northeast Mississippi and the other over northeast Arkansas. NQA radar indicated thunderstorms continue to spread northeast over the Mid-South along the aforementioned shortwaves. Current PWATS are around 1.8", nearing the 90th percentile, leading to a possible localized flooding risk as convection moves across the area this afternoon and into evening. A damaging wind, sub-severe hail, and a brief spin up tornado also remains possible along continued pop-up convection development as we move through today`s end. Current surface-based CAPE values are around 2500-3000 J/kg with about 25 kts of 0-6 km Bulk wind shear and significant tornado parameter of <1. Though severe parameters support development through the afternoon hours, with a high CAPE, low shear environment, once the sun goes down, ie we lose daytime heating, severe potential will likely decrease. Current temperatures are in the lower 70s to upper 80s with gusty winds at the surface. A stratocumulus deck continues to spread across the Mid-South, limiting today`s high temperatures. Tomorrow morning, an upper trough will churn in from the west and center over the Arkansas and Missouri border giving continued lift for shower and thunderstorm movement across the Mid-South. Several shortwaves will also eject from this upper trough leading to potential strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into evening. Forecast surface based CAPE value are around 1000-2000 J/kg with about 25-30 kts of 0-6 Bulk wind shear along and south of the I- 40 corridor. PWATs will along remain around the 90th percentile at upwards of 2" and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Bottom line, there exists a conditional chance for severe weather tomorrow afternoon into evening with primary threats of damaging winds, sub-severe hail, and localized flooding. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday along continued ejecting shortwaves ahead of a weak cold frontal movement Thursday. Surging PWATs near the 90th percentile and ample moisture availability will continue with a moist airmass ahead of the aforementioned front through Wednesday. A localized flooding risk may exist in areas along and west of the Mississippi River Wednesday given efficient rainfall producers and forecast QPF values of up to 3" now through Wednesday. As a cold front moves through Thursday afternoon, precipitation chances and relative humidity values will decrease. Surface high pressure and northwest flow will move in behind this leading cold front resulting in a more pleasant end to our week and start to our weekend. NBM continues to carry slight chance PoPs early next week as an upper low may form and give lift to precipitation development. AEH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Very low confidence forecast this TAF cycle. The line of showers/thunderstorms approaching from Arkansas has been weakening and the HRRR has it nearly all dissipated as it approaches MEM. Will include VCTS for 2 hrs(1-3Z) to account for the possibility that it somewhat holds together. JBR, MKL and TUP should not be impacted. After 03Z at MEM there should be a bit of a break for the remainder of the night with additional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Timing is highly questionable, but likely diurnally driven and enhanced. South winds around 5kts tonight, 6-12kts tomorrow. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...JDS