Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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889 FXUS64 KMEG 091807 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 107 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Cloudy skies cover much of the northern half of the Mid-South this morning with mostly sunny skies elsewhere across the region. Temperatures vary quite a bit based on the cloud cover and rain with readings ranging from around 70 degrees to the mid 80s. An area of showers and thunderstorms is tracking across northern sections of the region. The thunderstorms have produced some hail and winds gusts approaching 40 mph. This activity is ahead of a cold front which extends across portions of northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas. As the front moves south today into warmer air, additional thunderstorms may develop. Some of these thunderstorms could become strong or even severe with damaging winds, large hail and locally heavy rainfall possible. ARS && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South into tonight as a cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the entire Mid-South with the greatest potential along and south of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are the severe weather threats. A ridge of high pressure will build in behind the front bringing cooler and drier air for the start of the week. The ridge will build across the region with hot temperatures in the lower to middle 90s expected by late week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An active early morning across portions of the Central Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys as one MCS has departed the Mid-South and another one over eastern Kansas has expanded into southern Missouri. Consequently, regional WSR-88D radar trends show numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms upstream over Missouri with convective activity in a relative minimum at the moment across the Mid-South. Early morning surface analysis places a cold front from Pennsylvania back through southern Missouri and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Temperatures remain quite mild in the 70s with surface dewpoints ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Short-term CAMs continue to struggle with the convective initiation as overnight convection hasn`t been resolved well at all with the relatively weak upper-level flow. Nonetheless, short-term models including the HREF indicate additional showers and thunderstorms should develop across the region into tonight along and ahead of the cold front. Confidence remains low with strong to severe thunderstorm potential this morning as overnight convection has stabilized the atmosphere somewhat especially north of I-40. Instability is expected to increase throughout the day, especially along and south of I-40 where moderate to strong instability will develop as temperatures rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. These warm temperatures combined with moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, and 30-40 kts of bulk shear may result in the intensification of showers and thunderstorms that develop especially during peak heating. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging winds, perhaps some large hail as the main severe weather threats. Ample low level moisture with NAEFS still indicating precipitable water values around 2 inches (99th percentile) suggests the potential for localized heavy rainfall where training of thunderstorms do occur. Cooler and drier air will filter into the Mid-South by Monday with highs only reaching the lower to middle 80s as an upper-level trough will persist over the Eastern U.S. Long range operational and ensemble model solutions indicate a potential for hot and humid weather to return towards late this week as an upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley. CJC && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Scattered TSRA was ongoing over northern AR at discussion time. This convection was focused near a synoptic cold front and aided by a weak shortwave lifting east across southern MO. Further south, the airmass was capped behind an outflow boundary that passed through MEM around 16Z. TSRA coverage should be sufficiently sparse to preclude a TS mention at MEM, by the time the front reaches MEM and daytime heating wanes. Main area of focus will be where the synoptic front and outflow boundary intersect, currently over NW AR. Some TSRA development will be possible southeastward along the boundary with daytime heating, and with the aid of a shortwave tracking along the MO/AR border. Further down the boundary over north MS, primary TSRA driver will be daytime heating, primarily affecting TUP. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...PWB