263
FXUS64 KMEG 082333
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the northern half of the
Mid-South tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the
north. A few thunderstorms could be strong or possibly severe late
this evening mainly north of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds,
and localized heavy rainfall are possible. As the cold front moves
through the region on Sunday, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the front from Sunday morning through
Monday morning.

Cooler and drier air will build into the area by Monday night.
Temperatures will warm back to the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds across the region. Along
with the warmer weather, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this
afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 90 degrees.
An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across
portions of west Tennessee.

A cold front will move south out of northern Missouri tonight and
will be just north of the Mid-South by Sunday morning. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front
tonight with some of this activity moving across northern sections
of the Mid-South, mainly north of I-40. Some of the thunderstorms
could be strong or possibly severe tonight. Damaging winds, large
hail, and locally heavy rainfall would be the main threats.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm tonight with lows Sunday
morning in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

As the cold front moves south through the Mid-South on Sunday,
more scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of it.
Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with highs from
the upper 70s to lower 90s. As the front moves into north
Mississippi Sunday night, scattered thunderstorms will be confined
to the southern half of the region. Temperatures will remain
cooler behind the front with lows Monday morning in the upper 50s
to upper 60s.

As the cold front reaches central Mississippi Monday morning,
thunderstorms could be found across extreme southern sections of
the Mid-South. Cooler and drier air will move into the region on
Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dry weather with
below normal temperatures is expected for Monday night through
Wednesday morning. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible
on Wednesday.

An upper level ridge will start to build into the Mid-South
starting Thursday and continuing into Friday. This will bring
warmer air into the region with above normal temperatures expected
for both days. Along with the warmer weather, scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible both days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A line of TSRA/SHRA will move toward the airspace later this
evening affecting most sites except TUP. While it does appear that
TSRA activity should remain north of MEM, there is the potential
that it could encroach on the terminal that may result in an
amendment to TAF when confidence increases. Guidance appears to be
in decent agreement with respect to introducing MVFR CIGS at all
sites except TUP between 14-23z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...JPR