581
FXUS64 KMEG 082008
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
308 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the northern half of the
Mid-South tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the
north. A few thunderstorms could be strong or possibly severe late
this evening mainly north of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds,
and localized heavy rainfall are possible. As the cold front moves
through the region on Sunday, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the front from Sunday morning through
Monday morning.

Cooler and drier air will build into the area by Monday night.
Temperatures will warm back to the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds across the region. Along
with the warmer weather, scattered afternoon thunderstorms are
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South this
afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 90 degrees.
An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across
portions of west Tennessee.

A cold front will move south out of northern Missouri tonight and
will be just north of the Mid-South by Sunday morning. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of this front
tonight with some of this activity moving across northern sections
of the Mid-South, mainly north of I-40. Some of the thunderstorms
could be strong or possibly severe tonight. Damaging winds, large
hail, and locally heavy rainfall would be the main threats.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm tonight with lows Sunday
morning in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

As the cold front moves south through the Mid-South on Sunday,
more scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of it.
Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front with highs from
the upper 70s to lower 90s. As the front moves into north
Mississippi Sunday night, scattered thunderstorms will be confined
to the southern half of the region. Temperatures will remain
cooler behind the front with lows Monday morning in the upper 50s
to upper 60s.

As the cold front reaches central Mississippi Monday morning,
thunderstorms could be found across extreme southern sections of
the Mid-South. Cooler and drier air will move into the region on
Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dry weather with
below normal temperatures is expected for Monday night through
Wednesday morning. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible
on Wednesday.

An upper level ridge will start to build into the Mid-South
starting Thursday and continuing into Friday. This will bring
warmer air into the region with above normal temperatures expected
for both days. Along with the warmer weather, scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible both days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Primary concern remains timing and track of upstream SHRA/TSRA.
TSRA will likely form over MO late this afternoon, drifting ESE.
This activity will likely remain north of MEM this evening, but
may get close if convective outflow is pushed further south than
anticipated. For the 18Z TAFs, kept a PROB30 for TS at JBR and
MKL.

TSRA chances remain non-zero after 09Z, but below mentionable
thresholds at this time. Next chance for TSRA is expected near and
south of MEM Sunday afternoon. This convection will likely form
along a residual outflow boundary around the time or shortly after
it passes through MEM. TUP will likely be the main terminal
impacted Sunday afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...PWB