120
FXUS64 KMEG 190422
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1122 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Evening satellite imagery depicts the last wisps of cirrus wrapped
around an upper low pressure system exiting into Middle TN. Clear
skies and light winds combined with excess moisture from this
afternoon`s convection have set the stage for a foggy night. More
widespread fog was added with the evening update, and a few areas
near the TN River may even see patchy dense fog overnight. Expect
a calm and benign evening otherwise with temperatures in the lower
60s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A ridge of high pressure will build into the Mid-South tonight
bringing an end to shower and thunderstorm chances through
Tuesday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s by
early next week. An unsettled pattern is expected to develop
across the Lower Mississippi Valley next Wednesday into the start
of the Memorial Day weekend, bringing daily shower and
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show the remnants of last
night`s MCV over portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. A shortwave rotating around this MCV has resulted in the
re-development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly over northeast Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies prevail across the remainder of the
Mid-South with temperatures as of 2 PM CDT in the 70s to lower
80s.

Short-term models indicate isolated/scattered showers and
thunderstorms will diminish into early this evening as the MCV
pushes away from the Lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated strong
thunderstorm or two containing gusty winds, small hail, and
localized heavy rainfall will be possible over northeast
Mississippi for the next few hours. Short-term model soundings and
HREF Grand Ensemble indicate the probabilities for fog overnight
will be sufficient to mention patchy to areas of fog in the
forecast for late tonight with relatively clear skies, light to
nearly calm winds, and ample low-level moisture from recent
rainfall.

Surface and upper-level ridging is expected to build across the
Lower Mississippi Valley into Tuesday. This will result in
afternoon highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s as 925 mb
temperatures increase to between 22-24C. Long-term models indicate
the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day beginning
next Wednesday into the start of the Memorial Day weekend as a
cold front drops into the Lower Mississippi Valley and retreats
back north as a warm front towards the end of the period. There is
a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
However, confidence is a bit lower as better forcing will remain
displaced upstream over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and LIFR conditions as
fog develops at all sites overnight. Dense fog is most likely at
TUP and MKL. VSBYs will improve to VFR tomorrow morning with
light northeast winds and clear skies through the end of the
period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3