285
FXUS62 KMFL 201908
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
308 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

With the previously stalled frontal boundary finally pushing south
of our area this morning, South Florida should enjoy generally drier
conditions for the rest of today and tomorrow! ACARS data at MIA
captured the northerly wind shift earlier this morning, along with
the  drier mid-level air mass and PWATs trending down (down to 1.34
inches as of 12:30PM, near the 10th percentile for this time of
year!). Nevertheless, there could still be some isolated showers and
storms that develop later this afternoon along sea breeze
boundaries, mainly south of Alligator Alley. Some of these showers
and storms could be capable of producing heavy rain, with general
accumulations of 1-2 inches, and localized amounts up to 2-4
inches possible as some moisture still lingers near the lower
levels. This could result in localized flooding, especially if
these heavy rain producers sit over areas with already saturated
soils.

Ensembles and ECMWF insist in pushing the aforementioned mid-lvl
trough further south and through SoFlo on Saturday. In response,
deeper ENE flow establishes, although still remaining weak
(generally 3-8kt). This will be reinforced by broad high pressure
developing over much of the SE CONUS, which will also usher drier
air into the mid levels across the state. Nevertheless, hydro models
keep at least chances for afternoon scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, with POPs in the 40-50 percent.

Temperatures and heat indices are expected to remain above seasonal
climo, but stubborn cloudiness and possible rain activity should
help in avoiding advisory criteria through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

During the second half of the weekend the mid level trough will
push into the western Atlantic as mid level ridging over the Gulf
of Mexico pushes towards the region. This mid level ridge will be
the main synoptic influence in the weather pattern during the
early to middle portion of the week as it gradually shifts
eastward and centers over South Florida. At the surface, as high
pressure strengthens to the north, east northeasterly wind flow
will gradually increase during the early to middle portion of next
week. This will be the result of the pressure gradient tightening
between the area of high pressure to the north, and the stalled
out frontal boundary over the Florida Keys. As some mid level
drier air works in from the north during this time frame, the PWAT
values will fall over the region and could potentially range
between 1.5 and 1.9 inches through Tuesday. While this will help
to reduce shower and thunderstorm chances each day, the stalled
out frontal boundary to the south will keep enough lower level
moisture in place to support some convection development along the
sea breezes. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will
remain along and south of Alligator Alley during this time frame
which will be closest to the weakening boundary. High temperatures
during the early to middle portion of the week will range from
around 90 along the east coast to the lower to mid 90s over
Southwest Florida.

During the second half of the week, forecast uncertainty rises
significantly and confidence remains low as guidance still remains
in disagreement in how it is handling the potential development of
a tropical disturbance in the Carribean Sea from the Central
American Gyre. As of 2 PM, The National Hurricane Center
currently gives a 50 percent chance of development over the
northwestern Carribean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico over the
next 7 days. The latest guidance remains in disagreement in its
intensity and placement of this feature during this time frame as
there is currently no area of low pressure to track. Until an
area of low pressure forms, guidance will remain poor in resolving
this potential disturbance until something trackable actually
develops. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses. For now, some moisture will try to advect back into
the region which will raise daily shower and thunderstorm chances
back to a typical late summertime pattern. With east to
southeasterly wind flow in place, the highest chances of
convection will remain over the interior and west coast each
afternoon on Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will generally
remain in the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s
across Southwest Florida during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Light
northerly/northeasterly winds should persist. ISO SHRA/TSRA is
once again expected to develop later this afternoon, but coverage
is forecast to remain inland of the sites, so no inclusion of
TEMPOS or PROB30s at this time. Conditions should improve shortly
after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Generally light winds continue today with a decaying frontal
boundary moving across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will
begin decreasing today as drier air slowly filters from the north
behind the front. But there will be enough leftover moisture for
isolated thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon hours, then
the decreasing trend continues into the weekend. Brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that
forms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Minor to moderate coastal flooding continues during periods of high
tide through the short period. These elevated tides will continue to
affect all coastal areas of South Florida through late this morning,
for which a coastal flood advisory remains in effect. Conditions
should begin to improve on Sunday as northerly swell and the tidal
influence decreases, but we could still see some minor coastal
flooding during high tide. Additionally, a moderate risk of rip
currents continues for the Palm Beaches during the next couple of
days.

NAPLES HIGH TIDE TIMES...2:57PM this afternoon, 2:15AM tomorrow

LAKE WORTH HIGH TIDE TIMES...10:39 PM tonight, 11:18AM tomorrow

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  90  76  90 /  20  30  20  30
West Kendall     74  91  74  92 /  20  30  10  30
Opa-Locka        75  91  76  92 /  20  30  10  30
Homestead        75  90  75  90 /  20  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  76  89  76  89 /  20  30  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  76  90  77  90 /  20  30  20  30
Pembroke Pines   76  92  77  92 /  20  30  10  30
West Palm Beach  77  90  76  90 /  10  30  10  30
Boca Raton       76  91  76  91 /  20  30  20  30
Naples           75  91  75  92 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ069-075-
     168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...ATV