696
FXUS62 KMFL 111857
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
257 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A wet period today through the end of the week is expected across
South FL. NHC is monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the
eastern Gulf, with a low chance (10%) of development over the next
48 hours. Meanwhile, there is a stalled frontal boundary to our
north across northern FL. At the mid/upper levels, there is a
short-wave over the deep south stretching into the northern Gulf,
and high pressure over the central Atlantic. This is all resulting
in record PWAT values across the area of 2.3-2.8 inches as shown
by our morning 12Z sounding and the ACARS soundings. This avocado
express of tropical moisture will pool across South FL and will
result in periods of heavy rainfall through Wednesday. Additional
rainfall amounts through Wednesday evening of 2-4 inches across
the east coast metro and 4-6 inches over the interior and SW FL
are expected. Locally higher amounts are a strong possibility,
especially with high rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour
expected at times. These high rainfall rates will definitely cause
issues for urban and poor drainage locations, and much of the
metro areas is already saturated from rainfall this morning. The
Flood Watch for all of South FL continues through Wednesday
evening. It may be extended beyond Wednesday, but that decision
will be made overnight or during the day tomorrow as more hi-res
data for Thursday becomes available, and we get the chance to see
how today plays out.

A limited threat for today that shouldn`t be discounted is the
tornado threat. Some of the discrete cells today have shown some
weak rotation, and ACARS soundings support a threat for a quick
spin-up tornado, especially over inland areas and over towards the
SW FL coast.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will be cooler thanks to the
rainfall and cloud cover, only reaching the low to middle 80s.
Tonight`s overnight lows will remain mild only falling to the mid
and upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An active subtropical jetstream will become entrenched over central
Florida, just downstream of a positively tilted major short-wave
trough that will impart on the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for a
fetch of deep tropical moisture to remain entrenched over South
Florida, thus resulting in a prolonged period of widespread rainfall
will continue through the remainder of the week. Hydrologic concerns
will be the primary focus through the remainder of the week,
primarily owing to antecedent rainfall from previous days, and the
repeated bouts of strong thunderstorms capable of producing very
high tropical rainfall rates. With PW (precipitable water) indices
remaining above 2.0 inches, expect favorable conditions for flooding
and even flashing flooding - particularly for urban locations. The
most intense rainfall will develop in tandem with upper level
impulses that trek through the CWFA through this period. As far as
rainfall totals for Thursday through Friday, expect 4-8 inches
for the western half of the region, and 2-6 inches for the eastern
half of CWFA (including metropolitan east coast), with locally
higher totals possible. These totals are subject to deviate based
on how the forecast evolves in the coming days.

A stationary frontal boundary will gradually dissolve, as low-level
circulations develop over the southern Gulf of Mexico and coastal
FL/GA respectively. This will likely stretch/divert moisture away in
opposite directions away from the region, though there will still be
lingering deep tropical moisture such that heavy rainfall will still
be a concern through the weekend. By late Saturday/early Sunday, a
backing of low-level winds will be realized as expansive Bermuda
ridge of high pressure expands southwestward. An easterly flow
regime will likely become re-established, which will allow for
periods of heavy rainfall in the morning along the east coast, with
more coverage generally along interior and western portions of the
CWFA. Heavy rainfall and flooding will be the primary concerns
again, though the threat should be diminished in comparison to
earlier in the week. Nevertheless, cannot rule out the potential for
flooding through the weekend, mostly conditional on measured
rainfall up to this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Poor flying conditions expected through the 18Z TAF period with
periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms expected. Prevailing
MVFR ceilings expected with times of IFR/LIFR ceilings and
visibilities during heavy rain. Southerly winds around 10 kts
however winds will be erratic in and near stronger convection.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Hazardous marine conditions at times through at least mid week as
enhanced tropical moisture results in periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Outside of storms, winds will be southerly around
15 kts with seas of 2-4 ft in the Gulf and 2-3 ft in the Atlantic,
however locally higher winds and seas are expected in areas of
stronger convection.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for Collier county
beaches through Wednesday due to persistent onshore flow.

Minor coastal flooding is possible today along the Gulf coast
around the high tide cycle late this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  85  77  83 /  80  90  90  90
West Kendall     75  87  75  86 /  80  90  90  90
Opa-Locka        76  86  77  88 /  90  90  90  90
Homestead        76  87  77  86 /  80  90  90  90
Fort Lauderdale  77  84  77  83 /  80  90  90  90
N Ft Lauderdale  76  85  76  84 /  80  90  90  90
Pembroke Pines   77  85  77  88 /  90  90  90  90
West Palm Beach  75  86  74  85 /  80 100  90  90
Boca Raton       75  86  75  86 /  80 100  90  90
Naples           77  87  77  86 /  80 100  90  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CMF