530
FXUS62 KMFL 261716
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
116 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Another warm and sunny couple of days are on tap for the rest of
the holiday weekend as ridging continues to build over the area.
There will be chances for isolated showers, possibly a storm or
two, each afternoon across southeast FL once the sea breezes
start pushing inland.


Surface winds will become generally light with the ridge over the
area, which combined with the lack of cloud cover will result in
temperatures hitting the mid 90s today, and mid-upper 90s on
Monday afternoon across much of South FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Models depict a change in the synoptic pattern that will
bring prevailing unsettled weather conditions through the
long term.

A trough will persist over the E CONUS during much of the
workweek with several impulses moving around its base. This
will erode the ridge over SoFlo, while pushing a sfc
boundary into the northern half of the state. Long range
solutions show this front stalling around central on
Wednesday, with SoFlo remaining in the warm sector through
the end of the week. Latest solutions bring PoPs into the
40-50 percent range each afternoon as model soundings showing
PWAT values around 2 inches, along with increasing lapse rates.

Expect a daily threat of possible urban flooding, especially
with the stronger thunderstorms. Sea breezes will once again
become the focal point for deep convection, with potential
for localized downpours. However, even with the increased rain
coverage, expect current hot conditions to continue. Afternoon
highs will remain in the low-mid 90s across metro areas, and
mid to upper 90s over some interior areas. Even higher heat
index values are possible, generally 100+ degrees each day
through at least Thursday.

By Saturday, a brief relief is possible as winds shift to the
northeast, but only a few degrees below current values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Generally VFR through the period. East Coast sites could see some
showers later this afternoon but cig/vis reductions are not
expected at this time. Westerly winds will prevail at KAPF through
the evening, while winds along the East Coast will become more
easterly as the sea breeze moves inland after 19Z. Light and
variable winds return overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Moderate southerly winds continue today before veering to a SE flow
on Monday and through the middle of the week. The Gulf waters may
experience westerly onshore flow each afternoon with the sea
breezes. Conditions may approach exercise criteria today and Monday
with wind speeds around 15kts and possibly higher gusts. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day across
the local waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s each afternoon
this holiday weekend. The records are as follows:

      5/26     5/27
MIA: 94-1949 96-1902
FLL: 94-1924 94-1924
PBI: 93-2000 96-1928


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  93  80  92 /  10  30  20  50
West Kendall     76  95  77  94 /  10  30  20  40
Opa-Locka        79  95  79  95 /  10  30  20  50
Homestead        78  93  79  92 /  10  20  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  79  92  80  92 /  10  30  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  93  79  92 /  10  30  30  50
Pembroke Pines   79  96  80  95 /  10  30  20  50
West Palm Beach  76  95  77  94 /  10  20  30  50
Boca Raton       78  94  78  94 /  10  30  30  50
Naples           76  93  78  92 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV/AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...ATV