Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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773 FXUS62 KMFL 221115 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 715 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 With the mid-level shortwave continuing to propagate to the east today, 500mb flow will veer to a more northerly direction in nature. Combined with background northeasterly surface flow prevailing, sea-breeze circulations will favor convective initiation across the southern inland portions of our area once again. With the Atlantic sea-breeze progressing further inland, the greatest convective activity will center over inland/suburban Miami-Dade, Mainland Monroe, and Collier Counties this afternoon albeit with less coverage. As the shortwave continues to propagate away, 500mb temperatures will continue to warm with 500mb temps in the -5C to -7C range possible. This will keep the majority of thunderstorm activity in the garden variety form, although localized ascent along boundary collisions could still support the potential of a quick pulse isolated strong to severe capable of a wet microburst if the storm pulses up and collapses in a quick fashion. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. By Thursday, the mid-level ridge will continue to build and remain centered over the Gulf of Mexico during this time frame as the aforementioned shortwave remains in the western Atlantic waters. Between these two synoptic features, South Florida will remain in a light northerly 500mb flow regime with a lack of synoptic forcing across the area with the subtropical jet located well to the north of our region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Therefore, with a lack of the aforementioned synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage which will mainly focus across inland areas during the afternoon hours. Typical thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will be possible, but still cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 The mesoscale driven weather pattern will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across inland areas as well as the Lake Okeechobee region for the time being. With reinforcing subsidence aloft, rain chances will remain fairly limited (20-30% PoPs) across the region. High temperatures for the rest of the week will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. By the weekend, the ridge of high pressure will further strengthen across the region which will lead to the continued warming trend across the area. High temperatures for Memorial Day Weekend will vary from the low to mid 90s along both coasts of South Florida with values in the upper 90s potentially nearing 100 across inland areas. If you have outdoor plans for Memorial Day Weekend, be sure to keep a close eye on the forecast based on your location and take precautions to protect against heat-related illnesses if you will be doing strenuous/long-duration activity outdoors. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light and variable winds will increase out of the east later this morning. Scattered showers and storms may develop across interior sections this afternoon as the sea breezes push inland. Most of the activity should remain away from the terminals, however, it may get close to KOPF, KMIA, and KTMB during the afternoon and evening hours. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the west southwest this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters throughout the period. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible in and around shower and thunderstorm activity across our area waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 With onshore wind flow returning to the east coast of South Florida, a gradual increase in rip current risks will continue across the east coast through the remainder of the work-week. A moderate risk of rip currents remains in place for Palm Beach County beaches today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 78 91 78 / 40 20 30 10 West Kendall 90 74 91 74 / 40 20 30 20 Opa-Locka 90 76 91 76 / 40 20 30 10 Homestead 88 77 89 76 / 40 30 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 90 77 / 40 10 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 89 76 91 76 / 30 10 30 10 Pembroke Pines 89 77 91 77 / 40 10 30 10 West Palm Beach 89 73 89 73 / 20 10 20 10 Boca Raton 88 76 89 76 / 30 10 30 10 Naples 92 75 92 77 / 20 30 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....Hadi AVIATION...Rizzuto