829
FXUS62 KMFL 172320
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
720 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A broad mid-level ridge will build over the Florida Peninsula today
and hang around through Saturday, helping to stabilize the
atmosphere and lead to mostly dry weather in the short term period.
However, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible
for coastal locations mainly on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze
boundary pushes inland in the afternoon and early evening hours
today and tomorrow. Additionally, while the broad high pressure and
presence of a dry layer in the mid-levels should inhibit storm
growth, there will remain the chance for a couple of stronger storms
capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail along the
sea breeze.

Since the weather will be a bit more stable over the next few days,
the main headline will be the abnormally hot conditions for this
time of year. The setup responsible for sparking this heat wave is
both the presence of a shortwave trough over the Gulf states that
will be advecting through the Southeast states and the high pressure
over the Florida Peninsula. This pattern produces a warm and moist
south-southwest flow over the region while sinking air under the
high pressure also leads to warming, and this combination is
establishing the heat wave. In addition, high pressure typically
leads to less cloud cover, which would allow for extra diurnal
surface heating.

With all that said, heat indices today are expected to range around
103-107F and thus a Heat Advisory is in place for only Miami-Dade
today with heat indices expected to exceed 105F for multiple hours.
General high temperatures for today are expected in the low to mid
90s. For Saturday, temperatures are expected to rise further due to
reasons stated above into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices up
to 107-100F, so another Heat Advisory will be possible for tomorrow
if trends continue and could spread to multiple counties. Overall,
whether advisories or warnings are issued or not, anyone sensitive
to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or take cooling
breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Increased rain chances return for Sunday and early next week as an
upper level short wave approaches and then crosses the area, and a
surface front very slowly crosses the state of Florida Sunday and
Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially
during the afternoon and early evening hours, with locally heavy
rain possibly leading to a few instances of urban flooding across
the metro. A few storms may be on the strong to severe side, with
damaging wind gusts from localized downbursts being the main threat.

Upper levels ridging will try to build in early to mid next week,
however the mid and upper level trough will linger just to the east
of the peninsula. While PoPs decrease somewhat, daily chances of
afternoon showers/storms will remain in the forecast each day,
primarily driven by diurnal sea-breeze convection in the afternoon
and early evening hours.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next
week with highs in the low to mid 90s through Monday. As the flow
becomes more easterly the east coast metro will get a reprieve of a
few degrees towards the middle of next week with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s, while middle 90s will continue over interior and
SW FL. Overnight lows will remain very warm in the 70s to around 80
through Monday and then lows will retreat towards normal values
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the 00Z TAF period.
Winds will become light and variable by 03Z with benign conditions
expected overnight. Tomorrow, winds will shift to the S/SE and
become breezy in the afternoon with the potential for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Activity is most likely to impact the
eastern TAF sites beginning 16-18Z as the sea breeze kicks in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Mainly benign conditions today and over the weekend with light to
moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be some
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic
waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas
at times and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  94  80  93 /   0  30  10  60
West Kendall     77  97  78  95 /   0  20  10  50
Opa-Locka        79  96  80  94 /   0  30  10  60
Homestead        79  94  80  93 /   0  20  10  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  92  80  91 /   0  30  20  70
N Ft Lauderdale  79  93  80  92 /  10  30  20  70
Pembroke Pines   80  97  80  96 /   0  30  10  70
West Palm Beach  76  94  77  91 /  10  40  20  80
Boca Raton       78  94  78  93 /  10  40  20  70
Naples           79  92  80  91 /   0  10  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Simmons