Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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187 FXUS62 KMFL 251649 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1249 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, CLIMATE... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity once again today as ridging erodes and the sea breezes become the driving features for convection. The 12Z sounding showed moderate instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a few strong thunderstorms, with current values of SBCAPE and PWATs at 1300 J/kg and 1.5 inches, respectively, which could climb up to values greater than 3000 J/Kg and near 2 inches this afternoon. This - combined with growing lapse rates as warming continues - will support a damaging wind threat and the chance for localized flooding across western-most portions of the southeast FL metro areas where the sea breezes are forecast to collide. An additional risk exists for small hail with some of the stronger storms, but warmer temperatures aloft will help limit this risk. Temperatures will reach the mid 90s later this afternoon ahead of the convection as winds remain out of the S/SW, with heat indices in the low 100s possible. Some relief will be felt across the East Coast once the sea breeze pushes in, but we`re talking a few degrees of difference, if that. Ridging will build back on Sunday with only isolated chances for showers and storms in the forecast. Lack of cloud coverage and convection will once again allow temperatures to climb into the mid 90s across much of South FL. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Models keep a mid-level ridge in place early next week, with drier mid-level air and ridging keeping convection to a minimum through the middle of the work week. Then global solutions show the mid-level ridge eroding away as a deepening trough reaches the eastern CONUS. An associated sfc frontal boundary will move southward and through the Florida peninsula late Wednesday and Thursday. And although some discrepancies remain in the global models, it seems that solutions are trending towards pushing the boundary either near of just over SoFlo. However, regardless of the final outcome, it should bring an increase in moisture and instability, with better chances of showers and storms for the end of the work week. Convection will again be mainly driven by sea breezes each afternoon. Expect high temperatures continue to hit the low-mid 90s across the east coast metro areas and in the upper 90s over some interior locations. Increasing moisture will also result in heat index values in the 100 to 105 range, and localized areas rising above 105. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Currently VFR conditions prevail, but chances for MVFR/IFR conditions increase after 19Z this afternoon as scattered SHRA/TSRA develop across southeast FL. SSE winds will prevail across the East Coast while W winds will continue at KAPF as the Gulf Breeze moves inland. Overnight, light and variable winds return. && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Exercise caution conditions could be possible Sunday-Monday as southerly winds 10-15 kts prevail over the local waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 With generally southerly flow prevailing, the risk of rip currents across East Coast will remain low through the holiday weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across the east coast metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday weekend: Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s. 5/25 5/26 5/27 MIA: 93-2005 94-1949 96-1902 FLL: 94-1963 94-1924 94-1924 PBI: 96-1949 93-2000 96-1928 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 92 80 92 / 40 30 10 20 West Kendall 73 94 76 94 / 40 20 10 20 Opa-Locka 76 94 78 94 / 40 30 10 20 Homestead 76 92 78 92 / 40 20 10 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 91 80 91 / 40 30 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 77 93 79 92 / 40 30 20 20 Pembroke Pines 77 96 79 95 / 40 30 10 20 West Palm Beach 75 94 77 93 / 40 20 10 20 Boca Raton 76 94 77 93 / 40 30 20 20 Naples 76 92 77 93 / 10 10 0 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...ATV