522
FXUS62 KMHX 031944
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the coast through midweek. A backdoor
front will move into the area on Tuesday and stall through
Wednesday morning. The weak front will lift back north
Wednesday as strong cold front approaches from the west. The
front will move through Friday, with cooler and drier conditions
expected for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Showers have started to blossom along the
seabreeze as it moves inland. Surface high pressure centered
offshore has kept us under warm and moist southwesterly flow. A mid-
level trough is sliding offshore while an embedded shortwave is
rounding its base. With weak forcing in place, shower and
thunderstorm coverage will be scattered through this evening. MLCAPE
is ample over the coastal plain (1500-2000 J/kg) but effective shear
is fairly weak (20 kt or less). Although the severe threat is low
given the lack of shear, any stronger storms that develop could
produce heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. Precip chances
will diminish after sunset and given our consistent southwesterly
winds today, lows will stay in the upper 60s.

 &&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...With surface high pressure over the northeast
US, a backdoor cold front will sag south into the area Tuesday.
This, along with the afternoon seabreeze, will serve as the forcing
mechanisms to support more shower and thunderstorm activity.
Similarly to today, coverage will likely be isolated in the morning,
become scattered by the afternoon, and diminish after sunset. It`ll
be quite toasty with highs nearing 90 across the coastal plain with
the beaches just slightly cooler in the low-80s.

As for severe potential, the threat is low given weak effective
shear (20-25 kt) and forcing. Despite these limiting factors, 1000-
1500 J/kg of SBCAPE would still make it possible for some stronger
storms to develop with threats of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Unsettled conditions expected through
Thursday with near seasonable temps. A backdoor cold front moves
into Eastern NC Tuesday, likely stalling through Wednesday
morning, and providing a focus for scattered shower and
thunderstorm development. Front lifts back to the north
Wednesday, with high pressure strengthening offshore. Increasing
southerly flow will bring a surge of moisture into the area
through late week with more unsettled conditions through
Thursday. A cold front will move through Friday, bringing drier
conditions late week into the weekend. Another frontal system
may impact the area early next week.

Wednesday through Thursday...The stalled frontal boundary will
lift back north early Wednesday with cold front approaching from
the west and high pressure strengthening offshore. This will
allow rich moisture (PWATs 1.75-2") to advect in from the west
ahead of a potent upper level trough and strong cold front.
Increasingly unsettled conditions are likely with a diurnal max
in coverage each afternoon, capped pops at high chance for now,
with greatest coverage likely Thursday afternoon and evening.
Weak shear will limit svr threat, though an isolated strong
storm with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain will be
possible. An increase in heat and humidity is also likely as
highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, and it
will feel like 95-100 degrees out when factoring the humidity.

Friday through Sunday...Cold front looks to move through Friday,
though still some uncertainty with respect to timing. 00z
guidance shows upper troughing lingering along the east coast
through the weekend, depicting drier and slightly cooler
conditions across eastern NC. Another frontal system may impact
the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday night/...
As of 1:45 PM Monday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through the next 24 hours. However, brief periods of MVFR CIGs
are possible wherever scattered convection develops during the
afternoon and evening hours today and tomorrow. Winds will be
out of the SW at 5-10 kt through the period.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Unsettled conditions expected this week,
with best chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Monday night/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Southwest winds at 10-15 kt will turn slightly
more westerly tomorrow morning and decrease to 5-10 kt. By tomorrow
afternoon, they`ll be back to the southwest at 10-15 kt. Waves will
be around 2 ft through the period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible through the period but most of the
activity will reside over the coastal plain and Gulf Stream.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Good boating conditions expected through
Wednesday with light to moderate winds. The pressure gradient
will tighten Wednesday night into Thursday with SCA conditions
possible.

A backdoor front may push into the northern and central waters
Tuesday, then lift back north Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
front will likely bisect the coastal waters into Wed morning,
with winds north of the boundary E-SE 10 kt or less, while south
of the boundary winds expected to remain SSW 5-15 kt. SSW winds
will increase to 15-20 kt Wednesday night, becoming SW 15-25 kt
Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday, with
gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Seas will be
mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft Thursday,
then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD/SGK
AVIATION...OJC/CQD
MARINE...OJC/CQD