792
FXUS62 KMHX 261812
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
212 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through the next several
days. Dangerous heat will continue today along with the chance
for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Typical
summertime pattern returns late week and this weekend. The next
frontal system approaches the east coast mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 1000 AM Thu...

Key Messages

 - Hot and humid again today, with heat index values peaking at
   105-110 degrees
 - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this
   afternoon and early evening

Morning update: Forecast remains on track for today. Dewpoints
this morning coming in a little big under guidance so have
decreased those over the next few hours which will keep heat
indices lower this morning but still expect heat advisory
criteria by this afternoon. Previous discussion follows.

Previous discussion: Latest analysis shows high pressure
offshore, sfc troughing over the Piedmont and weak boundary
draped through the Mid- Atlantic...while upper ridge begins to
weaken aloft. A Heat Advisory continues for the area as temps
will climb back into the 90s and combine with dewpoints in the
70s, with heat index values peaking at 105-110 deg this
afternoon. Expect the first part of the day to remain dry with
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this
afternoon and early evening. Despite the strong instability (ML
CAPEs 2-4000 J/kg), the lack of significant upper support and
shear (less than 15 kt) should keep coverage iso to widely
scattered with little threat for organized convection. The
seabreeze, remnant outflows and differential heating boundaries
will likely provide the focus for initiation. Pulse type tstms
will be possible, with potential for an isolated svr storm with
damaging wind gusts, best chances along and west of Hwy 17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Thu...Expect any lingering convection to wane with
loss of heating as boundary layer stabilizes. Little change to
overall pattern overnight with high pressure offshore, troughing
to the west and weak boundary draped through central VA and
southern MD. Lows a few deg above climo - low/mid 70s inland and
mid/upper 70s for the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue through the long term, with heat
   indices 100-105F every afternoon (90-100F along the coast)

Low level heights retreat slightly the rest of the week as the
upper level ridge weakens, and highs drop to the low to mid
90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely. The cumulative effect of
several days with high heat indices (and little relief at
night) is something for those working or spending much time
outside to consider this week as they make preparations for the
heat.

As ridge continues to weaken, trough over central NC and sea
breeze will be two areas to watch for thunderstorm development
each day. Lack of shear paired with ample instability favors
pulse thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. Lack of upper level
support keeps PoPs in the slight chance range through Tuesday,
as coverage of storms will be isolated to scattered. Next week,
a frontal system will approach the eastern seaboard, with the
best upper level forcing well to our north. While it is still
uncertain if the frontal system will stall to our west or blow
through the region, PoPs do trend upwards mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 215 PM Thu...

Key Messages

 - TSRA and sub-VFR conditions possible this afternoon.

Mostly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon but unstable
conditions prevail yielding some showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. These are expected to be isolated to widely scattered
in nature but they could bring a few gusty winds if near the
terminals. Otherwise expect southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts in
most locations. Overnight guidance is not particularly bullish
on fog or low stratus so have kept it out of the TAF at this
time although some early morning ground fog cannot be ruled out
with dewpoints remaining very elevated overnight.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...High pressure overhead helps keep winds
light to calm, and when paired with moist low levels, sub-VFR
level patchy fog will be possible each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 210 PM Thu...Pleasant boating conditions will continue
through tonight with high pressure in control. Latest obs show
light and variable winds, generally 10 kt or less with seas 1-2
ft. Winds will become S-SW 10-15 kt this afternoon with seas
building to 2-3 ft tonight.

LONG TERM /Friday though Monday/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Fantastic boating conditions are expected
through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure lingers over
the region. The pressure gradient will remain quite weak, which
will allow sea/sound breezes to play a big part in wind strength
and direction. Light and variable winds below 10 kts are
expected each morning, with winds increasing each afternoon and
evening to S/SW 10-20 kts in response to a developing sea
breeze for inland sounds/rivers and slightly pinched gradient
for coastal waters. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the
weekend, with 4 footers along the Gulf Stream Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RTE/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ