765
FXUS62 KMHX 220806
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
406 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area
dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system
moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return
to unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...Guidance continues to back off on
fog/stratus development offshore of NOBX. Along and west of hwy
17 continues to be the main fog concern for tonight with high
pressure overhead and calm winds resulting in dew point
depressions near 0 and ample low level moisture. Current
indication is Pitt and Martin counties will be spared from the
most dense fog, but areas south are likely to experience 1/4
mile or less visibilities early this morning. Introduced
Widespread fog with 1/4SM vis mentions with this update along
hwy 17 from the Onslow/Duplin/Pender county borders up to
Washington, NC. Patchy dense fog is still possible elsewhere in
the CWA this morning.

Lows this morning will be in the upper 50s, near 60 through the
CWA.

Surface high pressure shifts further offshore today, with lee-
troughing developing east of the Appalachians. This will lead to
a modest increase in southerly flow across the coastal
Carolinas. The increased southerly flow plus warming thicknesses
beneath ridging aloft will support high topping out 5-10
degrees higher than today, in the mid to upper 80s inland.
While instability will steadily build, it appears there will be
enough of a cap beneath the ridge to keep the risk of afternoon
convection very low. The one exception is along the central OBX
where a coastal trough approaching from the east may support a
few showers near, or just offshore by the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday... Sfc high is offshore to our east
tonight, with ridging continuing to build over us at higher
levels from the SW. Quiet night in store, with lows in the low
to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 60s for beaches. Some patchy fog
is possible Wednesday night into early Thursday morning along
hwy 17, but confidence and impacts remain low enough to prevent
an inclusion in this forecast update.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure over the mid-Atlantic will
start moving east on Thursday due to an incoming surface trough.
Unsettled weather will continue through the period with a
series of shortwaves forecast to move across the area. This will
bring multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...High pressure across the mid-Atlantic will keep
things mostly dry on Thursday. Moisture will increase ahead of
an approaching surface trough, causing an increase in cloud
cover and PoPs during the evening and overnight hours. It will
be quite toasty with highs around 90 across the coastal plain
and around 80 at the beaches.

Friday - Tuesday...High pressure will move offshore and make way
for an active pattern that will last through the rest of the
period. With high pressure offshore and broad troughing across
the eastern US, southwesterly flow will have ENC within a warm
and humid airmass. Multiple shortwaves passing over the area
will create chance showers (25-45%) and thunderstorms each day.
Ensemble guidance shows multiple chances over the coming days
for sufficient CAPE and shear, which could generate some strong
to severe storms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday... Sfc high pressure will shift offshore
by Wednesday morning. The developing return flow around the
high will lead to an increasing layer of shallow moisture
through tonight. As temp/dewpoint have decreased with winds
tonight, there is a high likelihood of dense fog developing and
overspreading the area from SW to NE, particularly along hwy
17. LIFR/VLIFR Visibilities less than 1/4 SM and ceilings
BKN/OVC002 are possible through and shortly after sunset, with
the worst conditions peaking between 5am and 7am. Return to VFR
flight cats by midmorning WED with another day of fair- weather
diurnal CU out ahead of the seabreeze which will turn light and
var winds more Serly in the afternoon and evening. Another round
of patchy fog is possible Wednesday night, but much less
impactful than the fog expected this morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected through
most of Thursday. The weather will become more unsettled on
Friday and continue through the weekend with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms possible. Periods of sub-VFR
visibilities and ceilings are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...Recent iterations of the quick refresh
HiRes guidance have continued backing off on fog/stratus
development offshore of NOBX this morning. Fog for inland sounds
and rivers are still possible through the early morning. Light
winds will allow seas to continue to lay down, with good boating
conditions for most waters during the daylight hours Wednesday.
Another chance of fog Wednesday night, but impacts are expected
to be much lower than this morning`s potential.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...SW winds around 10 kt will increase to
10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt later Thursday. This wind
regime, as well as 2-3 ft seas and multiple chances for showers
and thunderstorms, will stick around through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ092-198.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RJ/OJC
MARINE...RJ/OJC