337
FXUS62 KMHX 292235
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
635 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area tonight into early
Thursday morning. High pressure builds in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 PM Wed...Isolated showers have developed along the
sea breeze late this afternoon where higher dewpoints and steep
low level lapse rates reside, mainly confined to portions of the
Albemarle/Pamlico Peninsula. However, subsidence aloft is
limiting development and individual showers have been relatively
short-lived. The sea breeze showers are expected to diminish
toward sunset with loss of sfc heating but additional showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm may develop later this evening,
mainly near the Albemarle Sound, until an hour or two after
midnight as shortwave energy moves through broad troughing
across the eastern CONUS. An attendant cold front will push
through after midnight with precip chances ending after fropa.
Lows tonight will be near climo around 60 degrees inland to mid
60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...Cyclonic flow continues aloft with
weak sfc high pressure briefly building into the region on
Thursday. Northerly flow will advect drier air into the region
with dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 50s inland and upper
50s to around 60 along the coast. The drier air and subsidence
aloft should preclude any shower development Thursday afternoon
but cannot completely rule out an isolated shower along the sea
breeze, which is not expected to develop until late afternoon as
background nly flow will be dominant most of the day. The CMC
is the only model showing QPF during the day Thursday. Temps
will be very comfortable for late May with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

 - Below to well below normal temperatures, and low humidity, this
weekend

Synoptic Summary: Notable upper level troughing will develop across
the Eastern U.S. late this week and into this weekend, with strong
high pressure at the surface. Next week, a highly amplified upper
ridge is forecast to develop over the Western U.S., with general
troughing remaining in place across the Eastern U.S. At the surface,
high pressure is forecast to slide offshore, setting up a moistening
return flow in the low-levels.

Thursday Night-Friday: A potent shortwave, and an associated
100kt upper jet, are forecast to round the base of the upper
trough later Thursday into Friday. Modest low-mid level
moistening beneath cool temps aloft will support a period of
weak instability timed out with the passage of the shortwave and
a backdoor cold front. This should support the development of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially late
Thursday into Thursday night. Severe weather is not expected
with this activity, but with cooler temps aloft, perhaps some
pea size hail could occur. The shortwave will move offshore
during the day Friday, with strong subsidence developing in its
wake. This should put an end to any shower activity.

Saturday-Sunday: Sprawling surface high pressure moving over the Mid-
Atlantic and Carolinas should lead to a dry weekend locally.
Additionally, cooler than normal low-level thicknesses should
support near to below normal temperatures, especially at night with
the high overhead. Right now, Saturday morning looks to be the
coolest morning, with inland lows in the low 50s, and mid to upper
50s closer to the coast. Of note, some of the lowest available
guidance suggests a few of the typically colder locations inland may
drop into the upper 40s. This would be roughly 10-15 degrees below
normal.

Monday-Wednesday: The general consensus of medium range guidance is
for high pressure to shift offshore, allowing a return flow of
moisture off the Gulf and Atlantic. This doesn`t necessarily mean an
immediate return to an active pattern, however. It appears it will
take some extra time to sufficiently moisten the column after a
period of very dry air overhead. At minimum, we may begin to see
some seabreeze convection return by Tuesday or Wednesday, but
nothing overly impressive appears to be on the horizon, thunderstorm-
wise. One caveat, though, is that it looks like an active period
across the High Plains, which sometimes can lead to the development
of an MCV, or two, that could eventually have a downstream impact
locally, and some guidance depicts the convective risk increasing as
early as Monday. Thunderstorms aside, temps will steadily warm back
to normal, as will humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 635 PM Wed...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period as high pressure builds into the area. Some of the high
res models are forecasting an area of IFR ceilings developing
over the Outer Banks early Thu and spreading inland toward the
northern TAF sites. This still seems to be an outlier with most
guidance backing off on this solution. Light winds and lower
dewpoints should limit fog threat overnight.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

SHRA and isolated TSRA are possible spread VFR conditions are
then expected over the weekend, especially during the day. Each
night and early morning, however, light winds and clear skies
may support periods of sub-VFR conditions in BR/FG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 635 PM Wed...Latest obs show light NE-SE winds 5-10 kt
with seas 2-3 ft. Decent boating conditions expected through the
short term. A cold front will push across the waters after
midnight with winds becoming northerly around 10-20 kt. High
pressure briefly build in Thursday with winds diminishing some
while veering to NE to E through the day. Seas will continue
around 2-3 ft.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

 - Periods of breezy north winds through the weekend

 - Elevated seas possible over the weekend

The East Coast will be solidly in a northerly flow regime through
the weekend, with a series of shortwaves and fronts moving through.
Each wave will have a bump up in winds, although ensemble guidance
currently suggests the risk of 25kt winds is <10% with each wave.
Something to watch, though, especially with enhanced mixing over the
now-warmer waters. By late in the weekend or early next week, an
area of low pressure developing out in the northern Atlantic may
send a stronger long-period northeasterly swell of 10-12s towards
the coast of ENC, which may lead to a period of elevated seas.
Otherwise, an extended period of 2-4ft seas is expected.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RM/CEB
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...RM/CQD/SK