Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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630 FXUS62 KMLB 011845 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Rest of Today-Tonight...High pressure drifts offshore into the western Atlantic into tonight, maintaining onshore flow through the period. A stout inversion above 850mb will keep us mostly dry, but enough moisture exists below this layer to support a marine stratocu deck. A few showers or storms will be possible in this layer overnight tonight along and offshore from the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, mostly dry. Winds will diminish after sunset this evening, though continued onshore flow will be enough to keep coastal areas in the lower to mid-70s. Sunday...As high pressure settles in over the western Atlantic, onshore flow eases, with winds under 10mph in the morning increasing to 10-15mph, with gusts to around 20mph, behind the sea breeze during the afternoon. Winds aloft will back westerly, advecting in higher moisture into the mid and upper levels. A less hostile environment aloft should allow for PoPs to reenter the forecast. Models are in disagreement about the coverage of any showers or storms Sunday afternoon, though a sea breeze collision is expected over the interior. Thus, have PoPs 30-50% tomorrow, with the highest PoPs over southern and western portions of the forecast area. Easing onshore flow will allow afternoon high temperatures to increase slightly, rising into the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Sunday night, low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected. Previous discussion.. Mon-Fri...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from north FL Mon to south FL Thu- Fri. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue and beyond. Such low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through the evening hours, improving into tonight as high pressure settles in over the western Atlantic and winds diminish. Until then, onshore flow to around 20kts south of Sebastian Inlet, with 10-20kts elsewhere. Seas up to 6ft over the Treasure Coast waters will also diminish this evening, becoming 4-5ft. 3-5ft for the Atlantic waters north of this area. Showers and a few storms will be possible over the Treasure Coast waters overnight, especially towards morning. Boating conditions improve late weekend into next week, as easterly winds decrease to around 15kts or less. Will see winds veer southeasterly/southerly by late week. Daily shower and lightning storm chances, though PoPs remain around 30% or less most days and do not exceed 50% through the period. Seas 3-4ft Sunday becoming 2-3ft by Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions today, with breezy easterly winds 15 to 20mph and gusts up to around 30 mph. Will stay mostly dry through the overnight hours, though a few showers or storms will be possible along the Treasure Coast, especially towards morning. Min RH this afternoon between 35-45% over much of the area, with the driest conditions inland. Very good to excellent dispersion through sunset. Sunday-Early Next Week...Conditions improve slightly Sunday into early next week, as higher moisture creeps into the local area, keeping min RH values 40-50% over the interior and higher along the coast. Onshore flow will also diminish, though winds up to 15mph and gusts to 20mph are expected behind the sea breeze each afternoon. PoPs increase beginning Sunday, becoming up to 30-50%, with the highest chances over the interior. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Good to very good dispersion each afternoon. && .AVIATION... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions continue, but will need to remain vigilant if any nearby brushfires close to TAF sites for FU concerns. Breezy/gusty easterly winds through the period, with gusts of 20-25kts this afternoon, especially along the coast. Winds will diminish gradually tonight. A few showers or ISOLD storm may be possible along the Treasure Coast late this afternoon into tonight, though confidence remains low. Increasing (ISOLD-SCT) PoP chances, mainly in the afternoon on Sun, though could see a few morning showers across the Treasure Coast. Weaker pressure gradient in place for Sun with lighter ERLY winds than previous couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 86 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 MCO 70 89 71 90 / 0 50 20 40 MLB 73 86 72 87 / 10 40 30 40 VRB 72 87 71 88 / 20 50 40 40 LEE 70 90 72 91 / 10 40 10 40 SFB 70 89 71 91 / 0 40 20 40 ORL 71 90 72 91 / 0 40 10 40 FPR 71 86 69 88 / 20 50 40 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Leahy AVIATION...Sedlock