186
FXUS62 KMLB 250803
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
403 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat concerns continue through the holiday weekend, with highs in
the 90s and peak heat indices ranging from 100 to 107.

- Afternoon storms will be possible today, with frequent lightning
strikes, gusty winds, heavy downpours, and small hail the primary
concerns with any storms that develop.

- Mostly dry conditions Sunday and Monday will come to an end as
diurnal convection returns to the forecast Tuesday through Friday.

Today-Tonight...At the surface, a broad area of high pressure
remains present just south of the Florida peninsula, with weak
west-southwest winds at the surface persisting early this
morning. Minimal cloud coverage early will allow the chance for
sufficient daytime heating, with temperatures climbing into the
90s once again today. Peak heat indices will range between 100 to
105 in some areas across the interior. The temperature gradient
will prompt the development of the east coast sea breeze. Slightly
stronger westerly winds in the lower levels will allow the west
coast sea breeze to move inland quicker than the east coast sea
breeze, with model guidance indicating a sea breeze collision
likely occurring over the east central Florida region this
afternoon. A weak lobe of energy in the mid-levels will move
across the area, combining with increased moisture and the forcing
from the sea breezes and the subsequent collision. This will
promote shower and storm development across the area, with PoPs in
the 30 to 50 percent range across much of the area, with activity
likely kicking off after 12 PM.

SBCAPE vales in the 700-1500 J/kg range will be present
across east central Florida, with some impressive DCAPE values in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The dry air in the mid-levels is
primarily responsible for those impressive DCAPE values, but may
also serve as a limiting factor to some convection. However, any
storms that do develop could see some gusty winds between 40 to 50
mph, with gusts in excess of 60 mph not entirely able to be ruled
out. Frequent lightning strikes will also be possible. Temperatures
aloft do not fully support a severe hail threat, with 500 mb
temperatures in the -8 to -7C range, but small hail cannot be
ruled out. PWATs 1.3 to 1.6" support the potential for heavy
downpours in the strongest storms. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted portions of the area along the coast south of the
Cape and as far inland as Kenansville and Okeechobee in a Marginal
Risk (1/5) for severe weather, primarily due to wind and hail.

Activity will move offshore through the evening hours and continue
across the local Atlantic waters into tonight, diminishing over
time. Skies will become mostly clear and winds will diminish to
around 5 mph out of the west-southwest. Conditions will be warm and
humid overnight, with lows in the low 70s.

Sunday-Monday...The mid-level ridge situated across the Gulf of
Mexico will extend eastward towards the Florida peninsula and
strengthen slightly Sunday into Monday, with the broad area of
high pressure shifting back towards the peninsula slightly.
Models are indicating potentially drier conditions locally,
leading to reduced rain chances. The main global models are
in slight disagreement about just how much moisture will be
present, with the Euro remaining drier than the GFS. As a result,
have kept PoPs only around 20 percent primarily south of the
Orlando metro and the Cape each afternoon. Isolated storms also
cannot fully be ruled out, especially with the development and
collision of the sea breezes each afternoon. Confidence in storm
development, however, remains low at this time. If any showers or
storms do manage to kick off, they will move offshore and
diminish across the local Atlantic waters, with conditions
remaining mostly dry during the overnight hours.

Afternoon temperatures will continue to warm through the remainder
of the weekend and into Memorial Day, nearing records in some spots.
Highs will reach the low to mid 90s along the coast and climb into
the mid to upper 90s across the interior. Peak heat indices will be
greatest across the interior, with values ranging from 100 to 107.
Breaks in the shade or inside of an air conditioned building will be
crucial, and everyone should remember to stay well hydrated if
spending any sort of long duration outside. Overnight conditions
will remain warm and humid, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday-Friday...Mid-level troughing will sweep across the
southeastern US on Tuesday into Wednesday, with a weak frontal
boundary moving towards the Florida peninsula as a result. The
boundary will likely stall across central Florida, keeping a
sufficient band of moisture present locally through the remainder
of the forecast period. Diurnal afternoon convection is forecast
to return across east central Florida and continue through the
remainder of the period. The development of the east coast sea
breeze will prompt the development of isolated showers and storms
as it moves inland, with the sea breeze collision across the
peninsula leading to an increase in shower and storm coverage each
afternoon. The highest rain chances are forecast on Tuesday
afternoon, with PoPs 30 to 50 percent. Wednesday through Friday,
rain chances diminish slightly to around 20 to 40 percent. Shower
and storm chances decrease each evening into the overnight hours.

Heat will continue to be a concern through the long term as
temperatures each afternoon continue to climb into the 90s. Heat
indices will continue to reach 100 to 107 Tuesday and Wednesday,
falling to 95 to 100 Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will
remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast
to continue across the local Atlantic waters as seas remain between
1 to 2 feet. West-southwest winds around 5 knots this morning
will back to out of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots as the east
coast sea breeze develops, becoming southerly to southwesterly
once more overnight. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated
storms will be possible this afternoon into the overnight hours as
activity that develops across east central Florida this afternoon
moves offshore. Any storms that develop may be capable of
producing frequent cloud- to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds,
and heavy downpours. Activity is forecast to diminish overnight
across the local Atlantic waters, with conditions remaining mostly
dry.

Sunday-Wednesday...Favorable boating conditions will continue
through the remainder of the weekend and into the middle of next
week. West-southwest winds will become south-southeast each
afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops, with wind speeds 5
to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots each afternoon through the
period. Seas are forecast to remain between 1 to 3 feet. Sunday and
Monday, drier air present across the Florida peninsula will reduce
rain and storm chances, with any development that does occur likely
remaining south of the Cape. Rain chances increase again on Tuesday
and Wednesday across the local Atlantic waters, with showers and
storms that develop across the Florida peninsula moving offshore
into the late afternoon and early evening hours. Activity will
diminish into the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Warm temperatures across the Florida peninsula will persist this
weekend into the beginning of next week, leading to sensitive fire
weather concerns. Across the interior, minimum RH values between 35
to 45 percent are forecast each afternoon through at least Thursday.
Winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph through the period.
Lightning storm development will be possible today and again Tuesday
through Thursday along the sea breeze.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions prevailing overnight, with light winds. Initially
southwesterly winds early in the morning will veer E/SE by mid to
late morning along the coast, as the sea breeze develops and
moves inland. Expect to see the sea breeze reach inland terminals
(MCO) by around 18-21Z. The sea breeze is not forecast to make it
as far inland as LEE. Showers will develop along the sea breeze at
the coast after around 17-18Z, becoming VCTS by 20Z. The highest
confidence for seeing VIS/CIG reductions due to convection will be
from MLB southward along the coast from 22-02Z. Otherwise, just a
VCSH/VCTS mention for other terminals. After sunset, winds will
veer southerly, then progressively southwesterly overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  71  93  72 /  20  10  10   0
MCO  95  72  97  73 /  30  10  20   0
MLB  90  73  90  74 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  91  71  92  73 /  40  20  20  10
LEE  94  73  95  74 /  20  10  10   0
SFB  95  72  95  74 /  30  10  10   0
ORL  95  73  96  75 /  30  10  20   0
FPR  92  71  93  72 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Leahy