580
FXUS62 KMLB 301301
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
901 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Current-Tonight...The shallow patchy ground fog from early this
morning has dissipated across ECFL, with special thanks to the
higher sun angle this time of year. A weak, hard to discern
frontal boundary from yesterday will linger across south-central
FL today with moisture pooling along it. The moisture gradient
will be fairly tight with highest PWATs from 1.70-2.00 inches
south from Melbourne. As such, greatest afternoon-early evening
convection potential (20-30pct) will exist south of Orlando and
southwest of Melbourne. Primary storm concerns will be lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Some mid-level
energy, cooler temps aloft (-8.0C to -10.0C), and the inland
moving ECSB will aid in development later today. Activity winds
down by mid-evening southward. Otherwise mainly dry elsewhere and
continued hot. High temps in the U80s to L90s near the coast and
generally M90s inland. Peak heat indices in the 90s, but will
approach 100F toward Lake Okeechobee. Conditions remain warm/humid
overnight with mins in the U60s to L70s and M-U70s for the
barrier islands.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Key Messages:

- Hot temperatures continue Today, with mid 90s over the interior.

- Onshore breezes will lessen heat impacts this weekend, and drier
  air will once again limit rain potential.

Today-Fri...Patchy ground fog this morning south and east of
Orlando will quickly dissipate after sunrise though until then
localized visibilities may be reduced below one half mile at
times. Such patchiness of the fog can make driving more hazardous
especially at high speeds. A weak frontal boundary lingers in the
vicinity of the local area through Friday. Continued dry air will
limit shower and thunderstorm chances, especially across northern
sections today. The best chance for aftn showers and storms will
be over Osceola and Okeechobee counties (30%). Some debris rain
may reach coastal counties toward evening from Brevard southward.
Max temps will again reach the Mid 90s inland and L90s along the
coast, with a slow inland moving sea breeze in the afternoon.

On Fri, building high pressure down the mid Atlc into the SE
coastal states will produce a breezier NE wind flow and push a
diffuse east coast sea breeze quickly inland with the collision
occurring on the western half of the peninsula. An earlier onset
of the sea breeze will finally provide a small amount of relief
from the heat with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 along the
coast and low to mid 90s inland. Rain chances look too low to
mention along the coast and only up to a 30 PoP over the far
interior (Kissimmee River and Lake county).

Sat-Wed...High pressure ridge builds into the western Atlc and
considerable dry air is forecast to move in from the east. Have
removed mentionable rain chances for the weekend keeping a silent
10 PoP. The East coast sea breeze will remain dominant in
prevailing onshore flow, increasing 15-20 mph this weekend, with
higher gusts. Stronger onshore flow will help to keep high
temperatures near normal, in the mid to upper 80s coast and near
90/lower 90s inland. The dry airmass will gradually modify next
week with rain chances slowly increasing 20 percent Mon and Tue
and 30 percent Wed. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb but
not getting as hot as it has been.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Today...Only a slight chance mention for PoPs in the afternoon
are forecast for the Treasure Coast waters. Most of the aftn
storms will remain over the peninsula. Light W to NW flow this
morning will turn NE-E 10-12 knots this afternoon. Seas 1-2 ft.

Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this
weekend, as high pressure builds south down the eastern seaboard
then shifts off the Carolina coast. Onshore winds increase 15 kts
and even 15-20 kts at times Fri night/Sat. Mainly dry conditions.
Seas 2-3 ft Fri will build 3-5 ft Sat and 3-4 FT Sun-Mon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Min RH values are forecast to reach between 25-30% north of I-4
corridor, especially Lake county while rising to 40-50% along the
coast. Onshore (northeast to east) winds are forecast to increase
10 to 15 mph in the afternoon, with Very Good to Excellent
dispersion. There will be a small threat for afternoon storms
mainly in Osceola and Okeechobee counties.

Min RH values will hold around 35% percent Friday over the interior and
this will persist through the weekend. Very sensitive fire weather
conditions will persist, as onshore winds are forecast to increase to
around 15 mph and gusty while rain chances remain very low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 729 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Mostly VFR and dry conditions are forecast. TEMPO shallow, patchy
fog thru around 12Z, which should burn off pretty quickly this
time of year with the sun angle. Light and variable winds will
increase into the afternoon hours from the ENE at 10-12kts.
VCTS/TEMPO groups have been kept out of the TAFs with the greatest
chance for showers/storms this afternoon expected across the
interior to the WSW of the Treasure Coast terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  71  88  71 /  10   0  10   0
MCO  94  71  93  71 /  20   0  20  10
MLB  90  74  88  74 /  20  10  10  10
VRB  91  72  89  72 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  94  72  93  71 /  10   0  30  10
SFB  94  71  92  70 /  10   0  20  10
ORL  95  73  93  71 /  10   0  20  10
FPR  91  71  89  71 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Sedlock