923
FXUS62 KMLB 180607
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
207 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR expected to continue thru a majority of the TAF with coastal
terminals preparing for VCTS/TSRA after 18z-20z. This morning,
08z-12z, VRB may experience MVFR VIS due to BR forming after
earlier rains. Winds remain light and at times, variable, becoming
SSW after 12z.

The ECSB forms after 17z with winds locally backing to the SSE
near coastal sites. Scattered TSRA, some strong and capable of
producing IFR conditions, are forecast along the coast. However,
lower confidence VCTS is possible as far inland as LEE/MCO/ISM
after 18z-20z as well. Activity will dissipate and drift offshore
beyond 02z. At MCO, VCSH was included as low-confidence -SHRA
ahead of a cold front may approach after 09z Sun.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A few lightning storms have developed along the sea breeze
collision this evening and are currently making their way towards
the coast, where they will drift offshore into late evening. Once
this activity moves offshore, dry conditions are forecast through
the overnight hours. The main threats with these storms are
lightning strikes and heavy downpours.

Some patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Saturday
morning west of a line from Orlando to Lake George. However,
models have backed off from any fog overnight, leading to lower
confidence. Nonetheless, widespread dense fog is not expected.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid-70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Currently-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
through Saturday as high pressure builds over the state of Florida.
Southeast winds at 8-14kts will veer offshore overnight. Winds will
then back south-southeast into the afternoon Saturday at 10-15kts.
Seas are forecast to build to 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore.
Isolated lighting storms are forecast into this evening which
will have the potential to produce gusty winds and cloud to water
lighting strikes. Scattered showers and lighting storms are
forecast again Saturday afternoon with the potential to produce
wind gusts up to 40mph and cloud to water lighting strikes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  72  86  69 /  70  30  60  30
MCO  95  75  86  71 /  40  20  60  30
MLB  91  74  89  70 /  60  40  80  50
VRB  94  73  91  69 /  60  30  80  50
LEE  92  74  85  71 /  40  50  60  20
SFB  95  74  87  70 /  50  30  60  30
ORL  95  75  87  72 /  40  20  60  30
FPR  94  72  91  69 /  60  30  80  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ058-154-159-164-254-259-264-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Schaper