505
FXUS62 KMLB 300135
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
935 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Key Messages:

- Hot temperatures continue Thursday, with mid 90s over the
  interior.

- A few storms are possible for South Central Florida (south of
  Orlando) on Thursday. Slightly better coverage (20-40%) of
  showers/storms Friday in all areas.

- Onshore breezes will lessen heat impacts this weekend, and drier
  air will once again limit rain potential.

Well, we just keep adding to the margins of what will likely be a
record hot month of May at multiple locations. The heat wave
rolled on today, with Central Florida baking under abundant
sunshine. Widespread mid 90s were attained with even a record for
the date at Leesburg (96F). We had a few downpours over Martin
County this afternoon, but all activity has since relocated down
into SoFlo. Overnight, expect mainly clear skies with lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Some ground fog may form over the interior.

Northeast flow in the boundary layer picks up on Thursday, so we
expect the Atlantic breeze to be dominant. Moisture is lacking,
with 0-3 KM mixing ratios <10 g/kg. 1-3 KM RH values creep over
60% south of Greater Orlando, so it looks like Osceola/Okeechobee
Co`s (and perhaps interior portions of the Treasure Coast
corridor) stand the best chance for a storm in the afternoon/early
evening. Brief gusty winds and heavy rain are possible, but don`t
hold your breath for a widespread soaking, as coverage should
peak at 20-30% in these areas. For the rest of us, the lack of
moisture and/or low-level convergence will likely keep a lid on
rain potential yet again.

It will be hot again tomorrow, particularly over the interior.
Our mixing scheme has been quite impressive of late, with
1000-700 hPa thicknesses mixing well beyond the surface pressure.
No doubt, the high sun angle, drier air just off the deck, and
soil conditions are all playing into this. That said, thicknesses
do start to trend down on Thursday (slightly). So, take 2-3
degrees off of what you saw today. That leaves us with upper
80s/low 90s at the coast and low/mid 90s elsewhere. This is just
the beginning of a multi-day downward trend in temperatures that
will reach its nadir this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 935 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Tonight-Thu... (Modified Previous Discussion) Generally favorable
boating conditions prevail through mid-week. On Thu, only a 10%
shower chance in the afternoon for the Treasure Coast waters.
NWRLY winds early in the morning will veer northeast/east into the
afternoon, as the sea breeze develops. Winds remaining under 15
kts. Seas 1-2 ft.

Fri-Mon...Boating conditions will deteriorate slightly into this
weekend, as high pressure building into the western Atlantic
increases onshore winds to around 15 kts or even 15-20 kts at times.
PoPs remain 30% or less through the period. Seas 1-3 ft Fri will
build to up to 4-5 ft this weekend, as winds increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 659 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Fair weather prevails with VFR. After sunset, winds become
light/variable and may shift briefly westerly for coastal
terminals before sunrise. NE winds on Thursday from 6-12 KT, with
gusts to 15-18 KT for coastal terminals. Rain chances below 20%,
so no mention in TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Thu-This Weekend...Similar conditions will persist into Thu, with
min RH once again forecast between 25-35% west of I-95 and 40-50%
along the coast. Onshore winds are expected to increase to around
10 mph in the afternoon, with Very Good to Excellent dispersion
and high temperatures in the 90s. Have added a 20-30pct chance for
showers and storms across the interior/Lake Okeechobee region for
the afternoon.

Will begin to see some improvement in min RH late week into this
weekend. However, min RH values will remain near-critical over the
interior. Very sensitive fire weather conditions will persist, as
onshore winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph and
precipitation chances remain low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  89  71  88 /   0  10   0  20
MCO  73  94  72  92 /   0  10   0  30
MLB  72  90  73  88 /   0  10  10  30
VRB  70  90  72  90 /   0  10  10  30
LEE  72  94  72  92 /   0  10   0  30
SFB  72  94  71  92 /   0  10   0  30
ORL  74  95  73  92 /   0  10   0  30
FPR  70  90  71  90 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil