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000
FXUS62 KMLB 261922
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
322 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Current-Saturday... Upper level ridge over the eastern CONUS will
remain over the region, while slowly shifting eastward towards the
seaboard through the period. Surface high pressure across the
eastern seaboard, extending across the Florida peninsula into the
GOMEX, will persist. Locally, the pressure gradient will tighten,
allowing for breezy and gusty onshore flow of 10-15 mph with gusts
up to 20-25 mph possible to continue through this afternoon and once
again on Saturday. Winds will decrease to 5- 10 mph tonight, with
gusts around 15 mph possible along the coast.  Low level moisture
will increase through the rest of today and into Saturday, with PW
values today around 1.2" increasing to around 1.4" Saturday. Mostly
sunny skies today will become partly cloudy on Saturday as the
moisture increases. While most areas will remain dry through
Saturday, guidance is indicating isolated light showers and
sprinkles will continue to be possible this afternoon and into
Saturday across the Atlantic waters. Some of this activity could
make it to the coast, mainly from Cape Canaveral northward. Thus,
have included mention of isolated very light showers (PoP 10-14
percent) possible across the Volusia and northern Brevard coasts
through Saturday. Seasonable temperatures will continue, with
afternoon highs today and Saturday in the low to mid 80s. Overnight
lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

Sunday... A 1025 hPa high pressure center just off of the Carolinas
will continue to deliver east/onshore breezes to the state. Aloft,
ridging will continue to reside across the Eastern U.S. This will
keep tranquil conditions prevalent. Just enough moisture could
traverse from the Atlantic to produce a quick shower or sprinkle
along the coast. Otherwise, it will be partly sunny, breezy, and
mild with upper 70s to mid 80s (coolest along the coast), falling
to the 60s in most areas Sunday night.

Monday-Friday (previous discussion)...The upper ridging begins to
break down and shift off of the Atlc Seaboard into the western Atlc.
Initial surface high pressure off of the Carolinas will also
continue to weaken through mid-week, while gradually shifting
southward, then further seaward by the end of the work-week. The
onshore surface flow stays mostly intact, with winds gradually
veering a bit more SE/S, though the pressure gradient will slowly
weaken during this time. Continue to keep conditions over land dry.
Again, overall (low) coverage potential at the moment, keeping
mention of a sprinkle/brief light shower along the coast out of the
grids/zones. A warming trend will ensue, with L80s at the immediate
coast, perhaps some M80s here by Thu/Fri, and M-U80s into the
interior - perhaps some readings near 90F or just above into the
interior Wed-Fri. Overnight lows remain consistent and in the 60s
areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Easterly of 10-15 KT with
gusts 20-25 KT possible this afternoon. Winds will then decrease to
5-10 KT overnight, with gusts around 15 KT along the coast before
increasing once again to 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT by mid-morning
Saturday. Dry conditions through the period, although light
showers/sprinkles will be possible along the coast, mainly DAB, into
this Saturday. However confidence remains too low to include VCSH
wording at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Current-Tonight... Deteoriating boating conditions into tonight.
Easterly winds of 10-15 KT this afternoon, with occasional gusts to
20-25 KT possible will increase into tonight, becoming 15-20 KT
overnight before becoming 20-25 KT with higher gusts Saturday. Seas
2-3ft today will increase to 4-5ft in the nearshore waters and 5-6ft
in the offshore waters tonight, and 5-7ft on Saturday. Small craft
will need to exercise caution across all the waters tonight except
nearshore Volusia. Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all the
offshore waters starting 14Z Saturday, expanding to all the waters
at 20 Z.  Mostly dry conditions through the period, however local
guidance is indicating isolated light showers/sprinkles will be
possible through Saturday, mainly from Cape Canaveral northward as
the low level moisture increases over the area.


Sunday-Tuesday (Previous discussion, modified)...Still looking at
less-than-favorable boating conditions going late into the weekend.
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard gradually weakens during
this time, while sliding southward to become centered off of the
Carolinas. ERLY winds slightly decrease to 15-20 kts on Sun-Sun
night, and mainly 10-16 kts Mon-Tue while veering more SERLY early
in the week. 5-7 FT seas early Sunday will gradually / slowly
subside Sun afternoon-Tue. While conditions will remain mostly dry,
cannot rule out ISOLD sprinkle/shower activity throughout this
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Saturday-Tuesday (Previous discussion modified)...Still looking
at less- than-favorable boating conditions going late into the
weekend. High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard gradually
weakens during this time, while sliding southward to become
centered off of the Carolinas. ERLY winds slightly decrease to
15-20 kts on Sun-Sun night, and mainly 10-16 kts Mon-Tue while
veering more SERLY early in the week. 5-7 FT seas early Sunday
will gradually / slowly subside Sun afternoon-Tue. While
conditions will remain mostly dry, cannot rule out ISOLD
sprinkle/shower activity throughout this period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  79  66  79 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  65  82  67  82 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  69  80  67  79 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  67  81  65  81 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  66  82  65  82 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  65  81  65  81 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  66  82  67  82 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  66  81  65  80 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ550-552-555.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Watson
LONG TERM...Heil
AVIATION...Watson