876
FXUS62 KMLB 080610
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
210 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions prevail outside of convection through the TAF
period. Light SW-W winds will once again favor the WCSB, reaching
KLEE ~19Z and KISM/KMCO/KSFB ~22Z, increasing W winds to 10-15
kts. Delayed ECSB reaches the coastal terminals between 16Z-20Z,
earlier to the south and later to the north, shifting winds ESE-
SE 10-15 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts. ECSB/WCSB collision
expected just west of the I-95 corridor ~22Z. Slightly lower
rain chances than yesterday, but still enough for VCTS mention at
all ECFL terminals with varying timing between 18Z-03Z. Confidence
in timing and location of heavier TSRA too low for TEMPOs at this
time. Will continue to reevaluate in upcoming packages, but given
the lower rain chances, might have to go with short-fused TEMPOs
once TSRA develops.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Current-Tonight... While not as active as yesterday, east central
Florida had another active day late this afternoon and evening.
Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms once again
formed along the east coast sea breeze, outflow boundaries, and
boundary collisions. Showers and storms concentrated mainly just
west of I-95 towards the coast, as well as activity moving in from
the west and south around Lake Okeechobee. Some of these storms
were strong, especially across the coast of Volusia county, as
well as the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee/S Osceola counties
where reports of strong wind gusts occurred. Activity has since
diminished this evening, with any lingering showers and storms
moving away from the coast and out into the Atlantic.

Temperatures this afternoon reached in the low to mid 90s with two
of our sites tying their record high temperatures for the date.
Leesburg reached 96 degrees, which was last set in 2008, and Fort
Pierce reached 95 degrees, which was last set in 1998.

Mostly dry conditions expected through the overnight period, with
rain chances less than 10 percent. Mild and humid once again
tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Partly cloudy skies
this evening will clear through the overnight, becoming mostly
clear after midnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Tonight-Weekend...Outside of lightning storms, boating conditions
will remain favorable this weekend with seas of 2 feet and offshore
winds becoming southeasterly near 10-15 knots with the sea breeze
development each afternoon. Mariners should be cautious of offshore
moving showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours, with
locally higher seas, gusty winds and lightning strikes all possible.

Monday-Tuesday...Generally favorable boating conditions prevail into
early next week, although south to southwest winds increase above 15
knots briefly early on Tuesday. Much higher tropical moisture
arrives on Tuesday, bringing rain chances of 70-80% from mid to late
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This Weekend...Sensitive fire weather conditions persist due to
drought conditions and the potential for new fire starts due to
lightning strikes. Minimum relative humidity values fall to the
mid 30s to low 40s on Sunday, before moisture increases across the
state next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  95  75  97  74 /  20  20  20  10
MCO  97  77  96  76 /  30  20  30  10
MLB  93  76  93  76 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  94  74  93  76 /  40  20  40  20
LEE  97  76  97  76 /  30  10  20   0
SFB  96  76  97  76 /  30  20  30   0
ORL  97  77  96  77 /  30  20  30   0
FPR  93  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Haley