Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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044 FXUS63 KMPX 230554 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1254 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Evening chances for showers and thunderstorms diminishing. - Warmer temperatures return briefly tomorrow with a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight ahead of a cold front. - Mild temperatures are expected through the holiday weekend with only low chances of showers into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 657 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 The chance for lightning is near zero the rest of the evening as thunderstorm chances are quickly diminishing. Showers will also continue to decrease in coverage this evening and westerly winds will become light and out of the south. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 We`re enjoying a little break in the active weather of the past two days as yesterday`s system spins to the north over Ontario. Rainfall totals across the area generally range from 2-4 inches since Monday, with lower totals out west. Breezy west/northwest flow is keeping temperatures in the low to mid 60s early this afternoon with a nice diurnal Cu field across the area. A few isolated showers have popped up over the last hour or so across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin with the 500mb trough still lingering in the area. These showers will remain fairly isolated in nature, but may produce some small hail and gusty winds before diminishing by sunset. Southerly flow returns for tomorrow ahead of a low over the Dakotas, allowing for WAA and moisture to advect back into the region. Temperatures will make a run at 80 ahead of the cold front, but the timing of the frontal passage looks to be late Thursday night, missing the best window of instability. Still, a few stronger storms with hail and gusty winds are possible tomorrow night into early Friday from western into central Minnesota with most thunder potential decreasing by the time the line reaches eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Friday morning. QPF amounts are on the order of a quarter to a half inch, with locally higher amounts possible. Heading into the holiday weekend, temperatures look to be in the upper 60s to low 70s with daily slight chances for showers as an upper low is parked north of us. This weekend does not look to be a washout by any means at this point, with very low QPF amounts overall. A stronger embedded wave looks to swing through on Sunday, which will lead to the highest chances for scattered showers and storms, particularly across the southern half of the forecast area. It`s not until sometime Tuesday that this low finally moves out and we see slightly warmer temperatures and drier conditions return by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR throughout this TAF duration. Mainly high clouds through this afternoon, then mid-level ceilings develop over western and central MN by this evening. Showers and thunderstorms likely to develop overnight tonight through Friday morning, but this will be addressed in more detail in upcoming TAF sets. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR/MVFR with -SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind S 10-20 kts, becoming W 15-25 kts during the afternoon. SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind E 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...JRB DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...JPC