832
FXUS63 KMPX 071749
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1249 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers likely Friday night into Saturday morning.

- Warming trend as we head into next week with a few slight rain
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Today... Clear skies overnight will continue into this morning.
CLouds will start to move in from west to east this afternoon
into tonight as the next round of rain moves in. Temperatures
should rise to about normal in the 70s today with the sunny
start to the day. This will be enough by the afternoon for good
mixing, but winds aloft are lower today and it will not be as
windy as yesterday. It should still get gusty again late
morning into afternoon, just at lower speeds maxing out more in
the 20-25 mph range. There will be some RH values falling into
the 25 to 35 percent range, so we will be on the edge of fire
weather criteria. With recent rains and the removal of drought
conditions though this should help limit fire weather concerns
today.

Tonight into Saturday... As temperatures fall this evening into
tonight moisture advection will help saturate the air. This
combined with a shortwave aloft should support rain showers
tonight into Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are not
particularly high for this time of year up around an inch, so
QPF is not impressive in most ensemble guidance. Also not much
in the way of instability, so thunderstorms are unlikely. So
a good setup for some light rain with most under a 0.25", but a
region of 0.25-05" is possible based on the 00Z HREF. Best
chance appears to be east central Minnesota into west central
Wisconsin based on the expected tracks of the showers. After
the shortwave passes, Saturday should be a pretty nice day with
clearing skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Sunday through Thursday... Looking ahead, next week is where
the spread really starts to increase. Overall a warming trend
with above normal temperatures more likely by the end of the
week. How warm and what rain chances we get though is less
certain. Looking at the latest LREF the GEFS favor a cooler and
wetter pattern with the GEPS favoring warmer and drier. The ENS
is more in the middle. Looking to deterministic models the GFS
is the dry one with the ECMWF looking wetter for us. So when are
these rain chances? There looks to be two periods of synoptic
support late Sunday and Tuesday. Neither had a particularly
strong signal, so PoP values have been kept low until there is
some better clustering in the ensemble guidance and better
agreement in the forcing mechanisms in the deterministic models.
What is more certain is the warming trend. WAA kicks up in the
later part of the week with 80s looking likely and 90 on the
upper quartile. Basically after a few late spring days ahead the
later part of next week will feel like summer has arrived.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Solid VFR conditions at initialization for all sites with breezy
NW winds 10-15kts gusting 15-20kts. Cloud cover will steadily
increase late this afternoon through this evening and decks will
lower to the 100-150 range. As the evening progresses, chances
for showers will increase, so have converted the PROB30`s to
TEMPO`s and prevailing groups due to the higher confidence.
Smaller chances for CB/TS during the initial few hours of the
rain shield, especially over southern MN so have included
mention of convection there with conditions likely dropping into
MVFR although IFR cannot be ruled out for either visibility or
ceilings. Winds will go light/variable overnight then pick up
from the north after sunrise as conditions improve back to VFR
and the rain shifts off to the east.

KMSP...VFR conditions through the afternoon push with breezy NW
winds gradually diminishing. Upper level ceilings expected late
afternoon with ceilings lowering going through the evening
hours. Light rain expected prior to midnight with rain then
continuing through the overnight hours. There is a small window
of having CB/TS overnight as CAMs do show modest low level
jetting and residual instability but any storms will be quite
weak and short-lived. Ceilings will still drop into MVFR range
near sunrise and remain there through late Saturday morning
before improvement to VFR occurs around noon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC