Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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008 FXUS63 KMPX 092014 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. - Trending warmer through next week, with slight thunderstorm chances through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Pleasant seasonable weather continues Monday, but our next chance for rain comes Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through the area. The forcing aloft & surface low with this system will be to our north along the Canadian border, but a widespread band of showers & a few thunderstorms is expected as it moves through Minnesota & Wisconsin during the morning. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be isolated at best since the front will be moving through during the morning, but a few rumbles of thunder are still likely. Precipitation amounts will generally be decreasing from south to north as one gets farther from the forcing, amounts of 0.25-0.5 still look likely across northern & central Minnesota with amounts tapering down closer to 0.10 across southern Minnesota. A few CAMs show isolated thunderstorms redeveloping later in the afternoon behind the morning band of rain, this will depend on the timing of the front through the area & whether the atmosphere can destabilize again before peak heating is over. Models continue to trend away from ridging over the southwest building into the region later this week, as a strengthening jet stream along the US/Canadian border surprises the ridging to the central Plains. As a result, temperatures continue to trend cooler this week, although it will still be more summer-like with highs in the 80s & muggier dew points. The upper air pattern looks to become active again with the lower heights aloft, as a number of impulses develop within the faster flow aloft. Models remain inconsistent with the track & timing of these waves, but Wednesday afternoon into Thursday & next Saturday-Sunday look to be periods with the best precipitation potential this coming week. Seasonally strong wind shear with the jet over the region & warmer temperatures/dew points mean a chance for weather will accompany any organized precipitation chances, likely in the form of classic summertime mesoscale convective complexes. Precipitation amongst are hard to pin down owing to the spread in models, but its safe to say rainfall amounts over 1 are possible with any thunderstorm complexes we see, with locally heavier rain potentially exacerbating ongoing flooding concerns. Temperature-wise, NBM guidance suggests we reach the mid 80s midweek, with slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend when precipitation chances look to be highest. Longer-range guidance shows the ridging over the southwest attempting to make another push into the area by early next week, which could result in temperatures near 90, but well have to wait & see on that. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR expected the entire period, though a cumulus field near 5000 feet will slowly move from northwest WI southward through the evening hours. Sky coverage should increase towards our eastern terminals (RNH, EAU, MSP). North-northwesterly winds sustained 15-20 knots through the early evening hours before decreasing after sunset. Strongest winds are expected to be across south- central MN where sustained values will be around 20 knots with gusts of 25-30 knots. Winds will greatly reduce tonight to near calm with a general northerly direction. Winds will gradually turn more northeasterly Monday morning between 3-5 knots. KMSP... No Additional Concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 10G20 kts. WED...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10 kts. THU...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind W 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...BPH