Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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218 FXUS63 KMPX 091725 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and windy today with slightly below normal temperatures. - Warming trend during the week with chances for rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, Thursday, and next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Today and tomorrow... Under surface high pressure clear to most clear skies with ample sun. This sun will help warm the boundary layer today to provide thermal profiles favorable for mixing. Therefore we will see another gusty day today with winds gusting up into the 25 to 35 mph range this afternoon. Also with no source for moisture advection today dew points will likely stay in the 40s. This means low RHs and gusty winds, which typically means a fire weather risk. Thankfully according to DNR fire danger maps, our rainfall over the past few weeks and lack of drought conditions is keeper fire risk low. Despite the ample sun today northerly flow aloft will help keep high temperatures slightly below normal in the upper 60s to mid 70s today. Similar setup on Monday although not as windy thanks to lighter winds aloft, so even with another good mixing day the winds are not looking to be as high. With the 850 mb flow shifting to the south on Monday though look for high temperatures to warm a few degrees into the 70s. Tuesday through Saturday... Tuesday will be warmer thanks to WAA despite increasing cloudiness tied to the arrival of our next system. Still tracking this shortwave trough that the past few days of discussions have mentioned. The associated surface low looks more likely to track to our north over far northern Minnesota or southern Canada. The better rain chances remain to the north as well closer to the low rather than along the cold front that will be over us. Agreement remains strong in the occurrence of rain, even though there is still a fair amount of spread in the QPF values over west central Minnesota. Farther south and east QPF values such more of a light rain event. This larger spread is related to how long the convection over South Dakota can hang on, as the high QPF members generally keep thunderstorms into western Minnesota. The likely timing of this rain moving through farther east is not favorable for thunderstorms earlier in the day. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage parts of eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin could see some thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening. WAA should continue through Thursday with upper 70s to mid 80s being the norm for high temperatures these days. Some locations breaking 90 is not unreasonable with NBM upper quartiles still showing it. Recent trends though suggest that unless the ridge builds in deeper this is unlikely. As mentioned in previous discussions, we look to be moving into a more prolonged warmer and wetter pattern starting later this week. This is thanks to a more active upper level pattern with the jet stream over/near us and multiple short waves passing through. This is reflected in the CPC outlooks where both the 6-10 and 8-14 favor above normal chances for temperature and precipitation. However when you look at individual ensemble members there remains quite a bit of spread. Overall the clustering for rain timing remains from late Wednesday into Thursday and the following weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR expected the entire period, though a cumulus field near 5000 feet will slowly move from northwest WI southward through the evening hours. Sky coverage should increase towards our eastern terminals (RNH, EAU, MSP). North-northwesterly winds sustained 15-20 knots through the early evening hours before decreasing after sunset. Strongest winds are expected to be across south- central MN where sustained values will be around 20 knots with gusts of 25-30 knots. Winds will greatly reduce tonight to near calm with a general northerly direction. Winds will gradually turn more northeasterly Monday morning between 3-5 knots. KMSP... No Additional Concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SW 10G20 kts. WED...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10 kts. THU...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind W 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...BPH